I had covered an excellent paper which analysed Fed and other private forecasters’ performance. The analysis covered how these various forecasters fared w.r.t forecasting various macroeconomic variables. The result was not very impressive.
Here is a nice summary(in the form of a speech, what else) the performance of Riksbank (Swedish Central Bank) vis-a-vis forecasting.The Riskbank performance is more impressive especially w.r.t one year forecast. It has been better at estimating inflation and unemployment but not very good at GDP and productivity.
A nice speech on forecasting.
