Understanding the rise in Crude Oil Prices

I have put my thoughts on the rising oil prices in this paper. It mainly looks like a demand-supply imbalance but other factors like speculation, conflicts etc cannot be ruled out.

The next area of analysis is- if it is a demand-supply imbalance then how much should the prices roughly be? That is still not answered properly. It is only then we can know whether other factors are as much responsible.

Let me know your comments.