I am not sure how many visitors have seen this feature from St Louis Fed – Economic Synopses.
Economic Synopses is a series of short essays (generally about 1 page) that provide insight and commentary on timely issues in economics, finance, banking, and other areas. These essays are meant to be clear and accessible for the interested, but not necessarily expert, reader.
It follows its purpose word by word and is a must read. It can be freely subscribed as well. In these times of clutter and confusion it is a welcome relief.
In this A Perspective on the Current Recession: It’s Not the “Worst Case” Yet it looks at 2 sources of data- industrial production and change in non farm payrolls (a measure for employment). It sees how both looked in the past 10 recessions and compares it with recent recession. Both the data would have to worsen much more to compare with the worst numbers achieved in past 10 recessions.
In this The Current Recession: How Bad Is It?it uses 4 indicators and compares the current numbers with average of past 6 recessions. The 4 indicators are industrial production, employment, real income and retail sales. Only retail sales has fallen much sharper than the average compared to previous 6 recessions’ average.
Minneapolis Fed has a research comparing this recession with previous 10 recessions. The large story is the same. US data still has some way to go south.