Archive for August 3rd, 2009

Iceland lifts capital controls in a sequential manner

August 3, 2009

Iceland’s Central bank press release says:

The Icelandic Government has approved a strategy for removal of capital account restrictions, which was prepared by the Central Bank of Iceland in consultation with the Ministry of Business Affairs and the International Monetary Fund. In order to avoid economic instability when the controls are lifted, their removal is carefully sequenced, with each phase dependent upon the fulfilment of specific conditions. Once certain requirements have been met, the implementation of the strategy will begin with the removal of restrictions on those capital movements that are unlikely to cause instability. Other restrictions will not be lifted until this stage of the strategy has been completed successfully. On Wednesday, August 5, 2009, the Central Bank will present the phases of the strategy in further detail.

Hmm…This event study will be used by economists sometime in future- assessing the impact of capital controls on Iceland in 2007-? crisis.  It will be interesting to see the sequential capital-controls lifting process. It could serve some valuable lessons for other economies or could be another case of not learning the lessons from history. Let’ s see. Will keep you updated.

 

RBI Occassional Papers Winter 2008/Monsoon 2008

August 3, 2009

RBI released its occasional paper series for Winter 2008 and Monsoon 2008 seasons. Some of the papers look really good. Happy reading.

PS.
I think RBI should rename this section as Working Papers section. Occasional papers released in August 2009 for 2008 seasons is a little late. Renaming it as Working Papers solves two problems with one stroke- 1) makes the papers appear updated and 2) RBI does not have a working paper section whereas most central banks have one which is quite a surprise. It can continue with its occasional papers (just like ECB) but having a WP series is much needed.

Building economics post crisis

August 3, 2009

In my earlier paper, I said the impact of the crisis has been most severe on economic theories. Here is an excellent paper by Celestin Monga of World Bank  which suggests way forward for economics and economic thinking.

For decades, many researchers argued that economics had nothing to fear from enriching itself with lessons and advances from other disciplines. Unfortunately, these suggestions were either neglected or dismissed upfront in what was then arbitrarily considered mainstream economics. The global crisis has led even Nobel Prize winners to acknowledge that the problem facing economists and policy makers today is mostly intellectual – it is the need to confront the systematic failure of thinking, especially on the part of macroeconomists.

Despite its unprecedented magnitude and heavy financial, human, and intellectual cost, the crisis certainly does not invalidate everything that has been learned about macroeconomics. However, the costs highlight some of mistakes of the dominant intellectual macroeconomic framework.

Post-macroeconomics should not be understood as another metanarrative of the end of metanarratives. The use of the prefix post here suggests and emphasizes much more than temporal posterity. Post-macroeconomics should follow from macroeconomics more than it follows after macroeconomics. The theorizing of post-macroeconomics is therefore neither systematically oppositional nor hegemonic. It does not advocate a – dialectic opposition – between macroeconomics and post-macroeconomics. Rather, it suggests that the latter builds on the former and goes beyond it.

Would economists be interested?

Compensation issues: India doing a US?

August 3, 2009

Despite numerous proposals to rein in compensation structure of financial sector, the Wall Street execs continue to make merry. I was just reading this much discussed NY Attorney General’s report. The report says it all: No Rhyme or Reason – The Heads I win, Tails you Lose Bank Bonus Culture.

The report analyses the compensations of 9 banks that weer the first recipients of TARP monies. It says:

As one would expect, in describing their compensation programs, most banks emphasize the importance of tying pay to performance. Indeed, one senior bank executive noted recently that individual compensation should hot be set without taking into strong consideration the performance of the business unit and the overall firm. As this executive put it, “employees should share in the upside when overall performance is strong and they should all share in the downside when overall performance is weak.”

But despite such claims, one thing is clear from this investigation to date: there is no clear rhyme or reason to the way banks compensate and reward their

Thus, when the banks did well, their employees were paid well. When the banks did poorly, their employees were paid well. And when the banks did very poorly, they were bailed out by taxpayers and their employees were still paid well. Bonuses and overall compensation did not vary significantly as profits diminished.

The report shows how firms lost so much money but compensation remains unchanged and in some cases has gone up. And all these banks have received taxpayer’s money.

I was talking to a friend based in US and asked him whether you should name Wall Street as Greed Street or Shameless Street. He said these are understatements. I don’t know  why but this bonus culture is so strong that nothing seems to stop them. They just keep flowing. Another friend in US was complaining in November 2008 that no one was offering bonuses this year. This was the peak of the crisis and he wanted bonus and said that is the culture, we don’t care!

Well if this was not hopeless enough, this article in Mint says:

The collective remuneration of top salary earners at 24 Nifty firms increased at three times the pace of their net profit growth in the last fiscal, when the economy expanded at its slowest rate in six years. The combined compensation of the top earners for these firms, whose annual reports are public, went up 33.2% against a net profit increase of 10.34%, a study by Mint shows. One-third of the firms have increased the salaries of their top-earning executive much in excess of their net profit increase.

The salary numbers used for this study are total compensation packages, which include fees for attending board meetings, commissions, bonuses and perquisites. In some cases, these are numbers for a department or divisional head who earns more than the chairman or chief executive officer because of the unit performance or seniority or when comparable numbers are not available.

What is going on really? It doesn’t report the salaries of India’s Wall Street earners and will be interesting to see the parallels. The wall street culture seems to be catching up thick and fast elsewhere as well, not just in countries but sectors as well. I have noted this elsewhere as well and it doesn’t look good at all (see this as well).

Other countries are still to catch up with Wall Street so we can keep it on sideline for time being. Something dramatic and urgent needs to be done to tame Wall Street. This is just not acceptable.

RBI’s Monetary Policy Framework

August 3, 2009

Finally, after a long search and wait I found a paper on RBI’s monetary policy framework. Having looked at so many central bank frameworks, I haven’t found any useful paper for understanding RBI’s framework. Not that there are no papers on the same but somehow not really much talked about.

BIS had organised a conferenceon monetyarypolicy approaches and frameworks in Asia. In this, Kaushik Bhattacharya of IIM-L presents this paper on India’s monetary policy. It is really a neat paper and discusses central banking in India from a historical perspective.

He breaks the framework into 3 phases:

  • Pre – Monetary Targeting Framework (1970-71 to 1984-85)
  • Monetary Targeting Framework (1985-86 to 1997-98; this is further broken in two stages)
  • Multiple Indicators Framework (Current Framework)

He explains how each of the frameworks were adopted (how, why etc) and the economic performance in each period.

Above all, it works as a very useful literature survey on so many other papers written on the topic of Central banking in India. A great read and a great place to start and build up on learning about central banking in India.

It will be great for RBI to release an updated paper on the same on its Platinum Jubilee celebrations. It will set in the tempo further.


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