India’s core inflation – a note

On March 19 2010, RBI increased interest rates before the official policy. The main reason was rise in inflation and inflationary expectations.

Anchoring inflation expectations and containing overall inflation  have become imperative.  Headline WPI inflation on a year-on-year  basis at 9.9 per cent in February 2010 has exceeded our baseline projection of 8.5 for end-March 2010 set out in the Third Quarter Review.

Year-on-year WPI non-food manufacturing products (weight: 52.2 per cent) inflation, which was negative (-0.4 per cent) in November 2009, turned marginally positive (0.7 per cent)  in December 2009 and  rose sharply thereafter to 2.8 per cent in January 2010 and further to 4.3 per cent  in February 2010. Year-on-year fuel price inflation also surged from (-)0.8 per cent  in November 2009 to 5.9 per cent in December 2009, to 6.9 per cent in January 2010 and further to 10.2  per cent in February 2010. With rising demand side pressures, there is risk that WPI inflation may cross double digits in March 2010.

Note the importance of non food manufacturing inflation.

Again in RBI’s monetary policy held in April 2010, RBI Governor Mr D. Subbarao said:

…….the developments on the inflation front are worrisome. The headline inflation, as measured by year-on-year variation in Wholesale Price Index (WPI), accelerated from 0.5 per cent in September 2009 to 9.9 per cent in March 2010, exceeding the Reserve Bank’s baseline projection of 8.5 per cent for March 2010 set out in the Third Quarter Review. Year-on-year WPI non-food manufactured products (weight: 52.2 per cent) inflation, which was (-) 0.4 per cent in November 2009, turned marginally positive to 0.7 per cent in December 2009 and rose sharply thereafter to 3.3 per cent in January 2010 and further to 4.7 per cent in March 2010……

Clearly, WPI inflation is no longer driven by supply side factors alone. The contribution of non-food items to overall WPI inflation, which was negative at (-) 0.4 per cent in November 2009 rose sharply to 53.3 per cent by March 2010.

In both, RBI is talking about two measures of inflation. First is headline inflation and second is non-food manufacturing products inflation. Though India does not have separate categories, we could call the second one as core inflation. Ideally core inflation should also be based on CPI inflation but we don’t have a reliable CPI measure as of yet.

Let us understand these two measures a bit. Headline inflation includes all the items in the WPI index. Core inflation excludes certain items that face volatile price movements. Prices of certain items are highly volatile like food and fuel items. These prices provide confusing signals to policymakers. The prices of food and fuel items could increase sharply for few weeks and then decline sharply. This makes headline inflation also volatile. If policymakers increase interest rates seeing the rise in headline inflation, they could be surprised by a sudden lower trend in coming weeks. And monetary policy impacts economies with a lag, it complicates the policy further.

Hence, core inflation has emerged as an alternative for measuring inflation. In this, volatile items like food prices and fuel items are excluded. However, some economists criticize using core inflation as measure of inflation. As food and fuel are important items for consumption, they should not be excluded from the inflation measure. A focus on core inflation will miss the overall inflation trend. Suppose the prices of food and fuel increase for a prolonged period this will not show in core inflation but in headline inflation. So, should the policymakers ignore the headline inflation and focus on core inflation? Therefore, policymakers focus on both headline and core inflation for their policymaking. Most economies report both measures of inflation.

In India, we do not report core inflation and only headline inflation is reported. However, core inflation can be computed. WPI Inflation is divided into three broad categories

  • Primary Articles
  • Fuel Products and
  • Manufacturing Items.

The first two categories include food articles and fuel items which can be excluded. The third category – Manufacturing also includes food products which tends to be volatile as well and moves in line with prices of primary articles. So after excluding food products from manufacturing sector, we get non-food manufactured products inflation. This can also be called as core inflation for India (not very reliable though). The weight of Manufactured Products in the total WPI index is 63.8% and food products is 11.5%. So core inflation has items which constitute about 52% of the total headline inflation.

The figure below shows movement of core inflation since Jan 2000. It peaked in August 2008 at 11.14% leading to multiple hikes at that time. The inflation then declined thereafter because of the global financial crisis. As RBI Governor states in his above mentioned statement, it was negative 0.4% in November 2009 and then increases sharply to 4.2% in February 2010. This prompted RBI to increase its policy rates before monetary policy. RBI again increased its policy rates in April 2010 seeing continued rise in core inflation.   

 It will be important to keep looking at this measure of inflation. Though not as robust, it does help in some way to understand demand-side inflation pressures in the economy. And this is what keeps central banks interested as well.

About these ads

10 Responses to “India’s core inflation – a note”

  1. India’s Core Inflation « Indian Industry Tracker Says:

    […] two types of inflation. One, is the headline inflation and the other is the core inflation. Mostly economics, a blog by my colleague gives an insight in to these concepts and their application. […]

  2. India’s soaring inflation sore | Beyond Brics | FT.com Says:

    […] reading: Inflation threat to India and China, FT India’s core inflation, Mostly […]

  3. Aryan Says:

    Amol, I do agree with you that food and fuel is volatile therefore one needs to monitor both core and non-core inflation. However, the complexity never ends there. There was a time when WPI inflation was at nearly zero level (thanks to base) and CPI inflation was extremely high. what would be the policy action then? we know in India most of the time, the inflation is due to supply side constraint. However, the monetary policy can only address the demand side problems. If paddy crop fails and price of Rice/kg goes up, then the solution is to raise the interest rate so that demand would fall. Demand side inflation is an extremely sporadic phenomena in India. It is rightfully so also since more than half of India lives in rural area and demand for manufactured product is not that high. Therefore, there is no easy solution and even you can observe in the document how the central bank is not very clear in their explanation about addressing the demand side factors.

  4. Sealy Soybean Foam-Core Crib Mattress | Foam Matress Blog Says:

    […] India's core inflation – a note « Mostly Economics […]

  5. Sources and Deployments of Money Supply in India « Mostly Economics Says:

    […] As I posted a while back, it is useful to look at money supply in various ways. I had looked at relationship between M1 and M3 and money […]

  6. WPI Inflation April 2010 Update « Mostly Economics Says:

    […] Inflation (see a primer on the same here) We had discussed this measure in our previous economic weekly edition. RBI has been focusing on […]

  7. Inflation Jun 2010- Update « Mostly Economics Says:

    […] Inflation (a primer here) RBI has been focusing on this measure of inflation for its monetary policy actions. In core […]

  8. rakesh Says:

    It is interesting from the graph that core inflation itself is volatile in India.

    the purchasing power of the poor decreases when the food prices and fuel prices go up for a prolonged time. Somehow the food supply has to increase either by importing or good crops or using government price ceiling to avoid speculation and artificial price hike and food shortage.

    Where can one find data about inflation in India other than the RBI website?
    Let me know…
    thank you….

    P.S very good post and informative

  9. Akshaya Kumar Jena Says:

    The article is very informative. It clearly distinguishes between headline and core inflations, indicating that the latter is a subset of the former. Thanks to the author.

  10. How to calculate India’s core inflation « Mostly Economics Says:

    […] a few people have asked me on this calculation and hence writing this post. Though I had written an earlier post on the topic, I think it was not […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,255 other followers

%d bloggers like this: