This blog is on a short break…

This blog is taking a short break. Though it is not the best time with so much happening and so much to read…..

Blogging will resume on coming Monday, 31 May 2010. On Monday, we have a very  important data coming out- GDP for Q4 2009-10 which will also lead to GDP calculation for FY 2009-10. As per CSO advanced estimates, 7.2% is expected for 2009-10.

	2005-06	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10
agriculture, forestry & fishing	5.2	3.7	4.7	1.6	-0.2
Industry	8.1	13.6	9.3	3.1	8.8
mining & quarrying	1.3	8.7	3.9	1.6	8.7
manufacturing	9.6	14.9	10.3	3.2	8.9
electricity, gas & water supply	6.6	10.0	8.5	3.9	8.2
Services	10.2	9.9	9.7	7.7	7.7
construction	12.4	10.6	10.0	5.9	6.5
trade, hotels & restaurants	12.1	11.7	10.7	7.6	8.3
financing, insurance, real estate & bus. Services	12.8	14.5	13.2	10.1	9.9
community, social & personal services	7.6	2.6	6.7	13.9	8.2
GDP	9.5	9.7	9.2	6.7	7.2

The advance estimate were released on 8 Feb 2010 and we got Q3 2009-10 estimate on 26 Feb 2010. So, one can estimate expected growth in Q4 2009-10 as well. Here it goes:

	Apr-Jun 09	Jul-Sep 09	Oct-Dec 09	Jan-Mar 10 (implied growth	2009-10 Expected
Agriculture	2.4	0.9	-2.8	-1.2	-0.2
Industry	4.2	9.1	12.8	9.2	8.8
Services	6.8	8.3	6.2	8.4	7.7
GDP	7.1	6.5	8.7	8.8	7.2

We get, Agri and Services data when GDP numbers are released. But we can estimate industry growth as we have IIP growth for Q4 2009-10. It is at 12.4%. So, if agri and services on expected lines, then GDP growth could be higher than expected 8.8% in Q4 2009-10. Final GDP could be around 7.5% as RBI and EAC have indicated.

With all this info, see you on Monday.

Addendum:

Check out this new magazine – Inclusion. Got great articles from  leading indian policymakers/economists/thinkers. (HT: Gold Standard Blog, a superb blog from V Anantha Nageswaran. I have just started reading it thanks to Niranjan’s Meta Blog

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