Reinhilde Veugelers of Bruegel has this nice paper on the topic. She discusses the growing China power from an EU angle.
She says the science world is moving towards a G-2 system with US and China as the two members. EU needs to work and catch up:
Both the European Union and the United States must adapt to the scientific surge from China and other emerging nations. In the US, decision makers fear that their open model for building scientific power, based to a great extent on recruiting talent from abroad, has passed its peak. But for the moment the US-China connection is still strong, growing, virtuous and mutually beneficial. In fact, the emerging multipolar science world looks set to be dominated by a US-China G2. With its more inward-looking perspective, the EU needs to do more than focus on internal integration. The European Research Area programme provides the framework for a European policy agenda, but this should place much greater and more urgent emphasis on building excellence and openness to researchers and their institutions from outside the EU.
Some aspects of China’s surge. So far it is mainly in the volumes game but is catching up on quality as well: