As per IMF’s Fiscal Monitor Update for Jul-12, the answer is yes! Thanks to Manas of Mint for the pointer.
India fiscal deficit at (8.9% of GDP) might just better than Japan (9.9% of GDP) this year. But in 2013, India might top the list with FD at 8.8% of GDP vs. Japan’s 8.6% of GDP.
On India’s Fiscal misfortunes, IMF says:
In India, overall deficits for 2012–13 were revised upward to almost 9 percent of GDP, more than ½ percentage point higher than in the April 2012 Fiscal Monitor, mainly due to higher fuel subsidies and revenue shortfalls. A determined reduction in costly subsidies would be a strong signal of a credible fiscal turnaround. It would also allow relaxation of financial restrictions, spurring private investment and growth.
I was alarmed looking at IMF’s total deficit numbers. I just checked with RBI’s data on combined fiscal deficit of state and centre (see Handbook of Stats on Indian Economy; Table 236) . There are large differences in IMF and RBI data from 2010 onwards.
| IMF | RBI | ||
| 2008 | 8.8 | 2008-09 | 8.37 |
| 2009 | 9.8 | 2009-10 | 9.42 |
| 2010 | 9.6 | 2010-11 | 8.08 |
| 2011 | 9.1 | 2011-12 | 7 |
| 2012 | 9 | ||
| 2013 | 8.7 |
Need to understand the differences and data reporting..
Whatever the difference, it is on a common IMF scale. What will the response of our policymakers be? Denial of course…
