A new report put up on PlanCom’s website (heavy file). As the report content cannot be extracted, hence just covering key ideas.
It says India needs new plan to make growth more inclusive and sustainable. The future planning should depart from old structures of thinking and planning. India’s future depends on the ideas and policies we shape now. If we continue with status-quo, there are dangers that Indian economy will slip further.
Hence, there is a need for scenario thinking on where India could be provided we choose certain ideas and policies. These are not predictions but just possible outlooks. All three are nicely explained via the example of boats (flotilla) in sea (resembling the global environment which is very volatile):
- Muddling along: A scenario where there is cry for reforms and some bit is done. However, they are piecemeal and do not address core governance issues. hence whole thing becomes messy. Centralised systems and large corporates dominate the landscape despite cries for decentralisation and small enterprises. Conflict between subsidies and financial stability remains unresolved..This is just like the current picture..
- Falling Apart: If muddling continues then there will be more subsidies and doleouts to subside the social tensions. This will lead to further problems as people get more dissociated with political union. If one puts recent free mobile phone distribution (amidst many such welfare programs), we are already on the periphery of this scenario..
- Flotilla Advances: This is clearly the ideal scenario where federal govt pulls its act together. Small enterprises are promoted and local governance instis are given a priority. This leads to all the negatives subsiding overtime..
Page 35 nicely summarises the choices..Which scenario will emerge?
Given the current sentiment, most would say scenario 1 to continue for a long time. Others will say scenario 2 is pretty near the corner. It may not fall apart as the title suggests but create significant stresses..
Amazing really. How quickly the sentiment has reversed in an year’s time. Just last year “Flotill advances scenario” was being taken for granted. And now we are just not sure whether it can ever advance given the potential..
A very interesting report from India’s key policymaking body…Will it find the ears of policymakers?