Archive for the ‘Central Banks / Monetary Policy’ Category

Profile of Stanley Fisher (Will he become Fed chief?)

February 19, 2013

Nice profile of Prof Stan Fisher who is set to retire as chief of Bank of Israel.

There are speculations that he might be asked to become chief of Fed. Bernanke’s term is set to be over in Jan-14 and people close to him suggest he is not interested in an extension. Interestingly, all  the major Central Bank chiefs have been students of Stan Fisher.  Bernanke, King, Draghi all studied at MIT under Prof. Fisher.

The article starts with nice quote from chief Bernanke:

Every August, central bankers from across the globe, who collectively pull the levers of the world economy, descend on Grand Teton National Park in Wyoming. They enjoy a symposium of big economic ideas and strenuous afternoon hikes. At one of their dinners a few years ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke looked around at some fellow titans of finance.

“Do you know what everyone at this table has in common?” he mused. “They all had Stan Fischer as their thesis adviser.”

Nice light read..

Using Businessweek archives to explain the missing monetary explanation of Great depression

February 15, 2013

Well, research on the great depression moves on..And researchers keep using innovative ways to explain what made the crisis of 1920s a Great Depression..

In this paper one of the leading great dep  historian Christina Romer alongwith her husband David point to a missing link of the monetary explanation of Great Depression. Mon Exp as suggested by Friedman-Shwartz (FS) was that GD happened as Fed tightened policy rates and did not provide enough liquidity. There are two thoughts connected to this. First, there was monetary contraction which then led to expectations of deflation. So, FS do suggest there was monetary contraction but linkage to deflation expectations was not there. The authors address this puzzle:

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The technical competence of economic policymakers…

February 15, 2013

I have hardly seen any research on this very important topic. Esp in these testing times.

Mark Hallerberg & Joachim Wehner have a paper on the topic. They explain findings in voxeu:

When do governments appoint “technically competent” economic policy-makers? Our model focuses on why governments would normally want a specialist in economics over a generalist with more political skills (the demand side) and when such leaders are available (the supply side). Our analysis of data for 1200 economic policy-makers from EU and OECD democracies since 1973 has seven main findings.

  • First, governments appoint more technically competent economic policy-makers during financial crises.
  • Second, Eurozone countries are less likely to have prime ministers with an economics education.
  • Third, new democracies select more technically competent leaders.
  • Fourth, left governments appoint more technically competent finance ministers in years with a stock market crash.
  • Fifth, presidential systems have more technically competent finance ministers.
  • Sixth, the longer a government is in office, the less technically competent are finance ministers appointed, but the more competent are central bankers.
  • Finally, average tertiary education levels correlate negatively with technical competence.

 It begins nicely:

The following quotations suggest that ministers who lack technical competence make bad policy decisions.

“I don’t know what George Osborne’s degree was in. It was certainly not economics.” – Alex Salmond, First Minister of Scotland.

“In case you are wondering, George Osborne studied history.” – BBC Radio Four Announcer1

“[ECB President] Draghi countered the view of [German Finance Minister] Schäuble that the Island Republic of Cyprus is not ‘systemically relevant,’ and that a bankruptcy of the country is not a danger to the future of the Eurozone. Such a comment is what one hears especially from lawyers, argued Draghi. The question whether Cyprus is systemically relevant or not is not a question a lawyer can answer. It is a topic for economists. Schäuble has a degree in law.”2

Should policymakers be experts in their fields? This is an especially relevant issue in the midst of a financial crisis. One potential reason for crises is that the incompetent people made the wrong decisions. If one were to replace these leaders with competent policymakers, then the crisis might end and there might not be crises in the future.

Nice bit..

Though, I think we make a big deal of economic competence and degrees in politics. In politics what matters is willingness to do reforms and take tough decisions. It isn’t anything to do with econ degrees. Take India for example. We all thought all heavens will break lose when UPA elected MM Singh as India’s PM in 2004-09 and again in 2009-14 (assuming UPA-II  lasts). But really nothing much happened. We have the worst crisis in his second tenure when much was expected as there was no left this time. Even simple things have become a reform in these times.

Moreover, the govt is surrounded by all top econs with top econ degrees and econ advice. Wonder what they do…Infact sixth point about longer the govt in power less competent the fin min is..applies wonderfully to India..

 

 

 

 

 

Should banking be a Fundamental Right of people?

February 14, 2013

A nice thought provoking speech from  Dr. K.C. Chakrabarty of RBI.

He says banking is not a fundamental right so far. As banks are expected to provide basic banking services to all. More importantly, they cannot deny the banking services to anyone who asks for it (barring for frauds, crimes etc.):

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Where Social Networks, Payments and Banking Intersect..

February 12, 2013

An excellent note by Terri Bradford of Kansas Fed.

It shows how social networks are being used in payment systems/commerce:

This article begins with a glimpse of the extent to which social networks have been adopted. Next, it describes the diversity of commerce arising among social networks and the  payment methods that support it. The article then describes  ways in which financial institutions are using social networks  to provide banking services and how consumer attitudes may drive opportunities to offer person-to-person (P2P) payments. Finally, the article concludes by setting out some of the potential risks of these various interactions.

Nice bit..

When the Bard met the Fed…

February 11, 2013

A nice post by Mary Tao connecting Shakespeare and Fed..

How game theory lessons can help in fiscal crisis..

February 8, 2013

Nice bit by Renee Haltom of Richmond Fed. Just wish she had more examples from game theory here..

Self-restraint with an eye toward long-term goals is a recurring theme when game theory is applied to the policy world, where expectations about future policy drive the behavior of households, businesses, and investors today. Then it can be valuable to create the expectation that  policymakers will follow through on promises to make responsible policies even when those policies are no longer in the policymaker’s self-interest.

This lesson of game theory points to a few things current policymakers might do to prevent fiscal and economic  catastrophe in the face of ever-growing debt. For fiscal  policymakers, that could mean committing, somehow,  to not running debts beyond control; for monetary policymakers, it could mean committing themselves, somehow, to not stepping in to shoulder the burden. But a fundamental  lesson of game theory is that making promises credible can be tricky.

 

End the Fed, Or Celebrate Its Existence? Reflections on Fed’s 100th Anniversary

February 8, 2013

A superb post by James A. Dorn of Cato Institute. In Dec 13, Fed celebrates its 100th anniversary. Fed celebrates its 100th anniversary in Dec-13 and the post reflects on both Fed’s history and future:

This year marks the 100th anniversary of the Federal Reserve System. There will be many events commemorating the signing of the Federal Reserve Act in December 1913. Many of those events will be occasions for celebrations by Fed officials and staff, but should the public celebrate a century of central banking?

At the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in San Diego earlier this month, Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff told a large audience that the Fed has been a “remarkably successful institution.” During Q & A, Mark Skousen, author of The Making of Modern Economics, asked why the Fed failed to predict the financial crisis and the Great Recession—but Rogoff failed to answer. Later in that session, Donald Kohn, former vice chairman of the Fed, acknowledged that the Fed had made mistakes and should exercise humility. Yet, he is a firm believer in discretion rather than rules.

In another session, Allan H. Meltzer, the world’s leading authority on the Federal Reserve, and a long-time proponent of a rules-based approach to monetary policy, was highly critical of the Fed’s expansion of its power since 2007 under Ben Bernanke. “No group,” said Meltzer, “should have unrestrained power that the Fed has taken for itself.”

He supports ending the Fed and creating alternatives to current fiat money:

With the 100th anniversary of the Fed, this year is an appropriate one to reflect on the Fed’s performance and, more important, to consider alternatives to discretionary government fiat money. Congress should establish a National Monetary Commission to investigate these issues and think about how to exit the Fed, not just exit current monetary policy. When the next crisis occurs, as it surely will, the U.S. must be ready with alternatives to the current fiat money regime. The public should not let central bankers monopolize that debate.

The late Nobel economist James Buchanan, a pioneer in public choice and constitutional political economy, opposed “unconstrained discretionary monopoly” and urged economists and policymakers to consider “alternative monetary constitutional regimes.” This year would be a good time to heed his advice. And a good place to start would be with Richard H. Timberlake’s forthcoming book, Constitutional Money: A Review of the Supreme Court’s Monetary Decisions.

This thinking applies to most central banks and monetary policy in general.

What times…And we thought central banks had all the tools in the world to end the crisis. Now that Fed has tried most of the tools, it is facing scathing criticism for its discretionary policies..

We face the dark night of the European soul…

February 7, 2013

An amazing paper/lecture from an amazing econ historian – Harold James of Princeton Univ.  The paper is given as part of T.K. Whitaker Lecture, organised by Central bank of Ireland. No matter how many papers you read on European crisis, there is scope for more. And intertwined with amazing European history as this one is.

He speaks on the design flaw of the EMU:

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RBI releases Financial Literacy Material…

February 1, 2013

RBI has released some interesting material for promoting financial literacy. Here is a guide to fin literacy, Financial Diary to calculate savings and expenses and 16 posters.

The press release says:

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Japan’s lessons for America’s budget warriors…

January 31, 2013

Comparison between US 2008 crisis vs Japan’s 1990 crisis is expected to continue for a long long time.

John Makin of AEI points to lessons for US. He says US should avoid fiscal austerity and stimulate economic activity. It should not follow policies of Japan’s stop and go approach towards stimulus.

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How Iceland’s recovery from crisis was different…

January 29, 2013

A super analysis from Már Guðmundsson, Governor  Central bank of Iceland.

He shows how Iceland had a very different experience with respect to policy responses to the crisis and recovery from the same.

First Iceland did not bail out its banks. It could not as banks were nearly 10 times larger than its GDP. What they did instead was to save the depositors and conducted swap facility to provide foreign exchange. So, in the end Iceland averted a sovereign debt crisis which the developed world is facing:

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Rethinking Conventional Monetary Wisdom…

January 28, 2013

Steve Hanke of Cato institute writes a food for thought piece.

He offers a monetary tour to 2013 and points to 3 ideas for 2013:

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From “Man-Cession” to “He-Covery”..

January 28, 2013

Silvio Contessi and Li Li of St Louis Fed have this nice short note on the topic.

They say the recent recession was basically a mancession where men lost more jobs thean women. Why? Because they formed higher share of employment in sectors like construction and housing. These latter sectors were affected the most in the crisis. hence men lost more jobs compared to women which were in sectors like education and healthcare.

And likewise recovery is basically a hecovery where recovery led to more men getting employed as the two sectors showed growth. However, recession has led to concerns on state finances which has impacted educaiton. So recovery has not impacted  women employed in education etc. However, faster growth will lead to jobs for women in otehr sectors:

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Citizen’s Guide to Unconventional Monetary Policy..

January 22, 2013

Interesting title.

A primer on Unconventional Monetary Policy by Richmond Fed econs - Renee Haltom and Alexander L. Wolman.

And this one is for citizens.

Comparing Greece in Gold Standard vs Greece in Eurozone

January 21, 2013

A super paper on the topic. Greece may be in real bad shape but its central bank econs have some decent papers on many aspects of Greece and Eurozone economies.

The origins of the Greek-sovereign debt crisis were the country’s large fiscal and external  imbalances. The key factor that abetted those imbalances was the absence of a short-tomedium term adjustment mechanism — due to perceptions of sovereign bailouts — in the  euro-area that would have reduced members’ external imbalances. This situation  contrasts sharply with the adjustment mechanism under the classical gold standard. Under  the gold standard, countries with external deficits would experience losses of gold  reserves, higher interest rates, lower money and credit growth, and reductions in wages  and prices, which helped restore trade competitiveness. We draw two main conclusions.  First, the durability of a monetary union is crucially dependent on the existence of a wellfunctioning adjustment mechanism. Second, adherence to a hard peg is no panacea and  cannot be sustained without the support of credible fiscal institutions.

The paper has some nice basics on functioning of economies under gold standard. Even then there were core and periphery members with former having stronger finances and latter having weaker finances.

What countries were members of the classical-gold-standard club?

Historians  distinguish between “core” members of the classical gold standard and the peripheral  members. Core countries include France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, with Belgium and the Netherlands also sometimes considered part of the core category. Among the common features of these countries are that each had relatively-welldeveloped financial markets and each had a national central bank. The periphery included Canada, South Africa, the United States and parts of Latin America (e.g. Argentina,  Brazil, Mexico), Asia (including Australia, New Zealand) and Europe (e.g. AustriaHungary, Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Russia, Switzerland, the Scandinavian countries).

Their economies were typically financially less-developed than those of the core countries and most of them did not have a national central bank during at least part  of the gold-standard period. Some of the peripheral countries participated in the gold standard only during part of the 1880-to-1913 period. Additionally, some countries that were not formally on the gold standard nevertheless followed policies that were consistent with a fixed price of their currencies against gold in an effort to “shadow” the gold standard. With regard to  countries that are sometimes considered to have been members of the European periphery, the following particular circumstances merit comment.

Greece became a member but opted out soon:

Greece joined the gold standard in January 1885 but dropped out in September of  1885, because, as Lazaretou (2004, p. 14) noted, the government failed to control  the fiscal deficits and thus to support the credibility of the system. It rejoined the  gold standard in 1910. Given the very-limited duration of its participation in the gold standard, and the inconsistency of its policies with such participation, in what follows we do not consider Greece to have been a member of the periphery.

So similar problems but Greece continued in EZ but dropped out of GS.

The paper nicely explains the adj mechanism in GS:

For its core participants, the gold-standard regime possessed an adjustment mechanism that served to reduce external imbalances (Scammell, 1965; Eichengreen, 1996). Consider first the operation of the gold-standard adjustment  mechanism in the absence of capital flows. To simplify the discussion, let us assume a  two-country world comprised of Greece and Germany in which Greece runs a trade deficit and Germany runs a trade surplus. Let us also assume that only gold coins circulate and prices and wages are flexible in both countries. In such a situation, the goldstandard adjustment process — called the price-specie-flow mechanism – worked as  follows: 

• Greece experiences a gold outflow, decreasing the money supply and reducing credit growth (perhaps reducing the quantity of credit) in that country, causing prices and wages to fall.
• Germany experiences a gold inflow, increasing the money supply and raising credit growth in that country, causing prices and wages to rise.
• As a result of the change in relative prices, Greece’s exports rise and its imports fall, eliminating its trade deficit. The opposite occurs in Germany.

Even this gold outflow would not be needed if central banks raised policy rates:

Capital flows reinforced the overall self-equilibrating character of the system as it operated in the late-19th and early-20th centuries. Typically, the central bank of a country experiencing a trade deficit would increase its discount rate, reducing its holdings of domestic interest-bearing assets and drawing cash from the market (Eichengreen, 1996, p. 28). This action produced two main effects. First, the money supply and credit growth in the country raising rates declined, reducing (or eliminating) the need of gold outflows from that country. In fact, capital could flow into the country as a result of the rise in the discount rate, smoothing the required adjustment. Second, the rise in interest rates would reduce economic activity in the country concerned, decreasing prices and, thereby, contributing to the elimination of the country’s external imbalance, through both relativeprice adjustment and the decrease in demand.

The pre-World War I gold standard operated in the above manner among the core participating countries (Scammell, 1965, p. 35). The core countries possessed the institutional capacity to make their commitment to the gold standard credible; therefore, they were able to issue debt denominated in their own currencies (each of which represented a certain amount of gold).

USeful read. A nice primer on GS as well..

 

 

Does monetarism retain relevance?

January 17, 2013

Nice essay on mon eco by Robert Hetzel of Richmond Fed:

Implicitly, central banks reject the propositions of monetarism. They do not characterize themselves as creators of money, but instead emphasize their role in influencing financial intermediation. They do not discuss monetary policy in terms of a rule, but instead use the language of discretion. They refer to the low level of interest rates to characterize monetary policy as stimulative despite low rates of growth of money and nominal gross domestic product. The question arises of whether monetarist ideas retain any relevance for central banks.

 He nicely explains the transition from Quant theory of money to inflation targeting…

RBI’s new WSS format…

January 11, 2013

In Dec-12, RBI mentioned that both RBI WSS and Monthly Bulletin is likely to change. Both were to become more crisp and analytical from Jan-13 onwards.

The January 2013 Bulletin will release an advance indicative calendar of articles to be published during the course of the calendar year 2013. The Bulletin articles will also be more focussed and analytical, putting forth the views of the Reserve Bank’s research staff on varied issues. This would contribute further towards enhancing transparency. The size of the weekly Statistical Supplement will get reduced to a 4-page statement from the current 8-page with a view to making it crisp and analytically more informative.

It has always been the endeavour of the Reserve Bank to disseminate the information in a timely manner as widely as possible. In this pursuit, the Reserve Bank of India Monthly Bulletin and the Weekly Statistical Supplement (WSS) have a long and chequered history. While the Bulletin made its first appearance in January 1947, the weekly statement preceded the Bulletin providing, among others, the weekly statement of affairs of the Reserve Bank of the preceding Friday. With the passage of time, both these publications have undergone major changes in substance and form in tune with time and state of the economy.

Both the new WSS and MB are out.

First changes in WSS:

  • WSS has been shortened to 4 pages (from 8 pages) and excel tables to 14 tables (from 22).
  • There is a bit of reorganisation of tables like Reserve Money which was Table 8 in earlier WSS is now Table 7 and so on.
  • Some Tables like Table 1 (RBI B/S) and Forex (Table 2) remain the same.
  • Some new tables have been added like RBI’s liquidity operations (Table 8). Some have been merged
  • Some tables have been deleted (like Table 22). Most unfortunate bit is deletion of Table 22 which gave you RBI’s secondary market buying of G-Sec along with OMO purchased via announcement route.

So, there will be a bit of changes in my guides to RBI’s WSS ( part I and part II). I haven’t made the changes though. Overall, logic will obviously remain the same.

In RBI’s new MB, they have given a  indicative calendar of articles to come in next issues. I initially thought we will get some more analytical and conceptual stuff. But these are just the articles RBI econs takes out every year. Nothing really different.

So, overall not really happy with the changes. WSS has deleted some crucial tables like Table 22. It was really useful as in 2012-13, RBI had bought nearly 35,000 Cr via secondary market. This was huge..

Not even sure how an indicative calendar of articles is really useful. RBI can actually take a leaf from other Central bank MBs which balance the usual articles with some conceptual and topical articles as well.

Fiddling with RBI Independence..

January 7, 2013

There has been a lot of criticism on the way govt has been trying to unsettle RBI over its independence.

Some background:

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RBI’s Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review: Dec 2012

December 18, 2012

RBI kept the policy rates unchanged. Again disappointing markets.

Here is a review of RBI’s policy. RBI statement here


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