Archive for the ‘Financial Markets/ Finance’ Category

Minsky moment for Australian cricket?

March 25, 2013

P0st 2008-crisis, many econs/ideas have risen from the ashes and many have been buried (or in the process of being buried). One such case of rise is Hyman Minsky whose Minsky moment has become one of the most quoted phrases.

Minsky turned the basic premise that we should not worry in good times. Infact it is in good and prosperous times (when ppl say this time is  different) that financial fragility/risk starts to build into the system. This euphoria then leads to excessive risks and then comes the Minsky moment when all the sand castles simply get washed away.

Well, I think Minsky and his moment could be applied to most walks of life. Just as you think, things are going well (in career, job, relationships etc.) you get a Minsky moment..

So this piece from Ian Chappel on Australian cricket stirred me a bit and took me to Minsky.

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Estimation of Counterfeit Currency Notes in India

March 22, 2013

A nice paper on an important but relatively unknown area. It is by RBI econs - Shri Sanjoy Bose and Dr. Abhiman Das.

They give a broad understanding of various research and issues on counterfeiting of currency and propose a method to estimate counterfeit of currency in India:

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Fed credit policy during the Great Depression..

March 22, 2013

Though lot is known still it is always int to read on Fed policy during Great Dep.

Here is  a note from  Tim Sablik of Richmond Fed. The credit policy of Fed has been criticised by many for providing support  to selective firms/markets. He says Fed used the same policy even in GD, albeit in a limited manner:

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East India Company: The Original Too-Big-to-Fail Firm..

March 22, 2013

Super stuff from Nick Robins. There is huge criticism on too big to fail firms and why it should end. So Robins tells us  East India Company was perhaps the first TBTF. There is large research on East India company and this is quite a read.

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On the Ethics and Economics of Finance (Amartya Sen Edition)..

March 18, 2013

Thanks to this super speech from BoI Governor Iganzio Visco, I came across this lecture from Amartya Sen. It was the inaugural Paolo Baffi lecture  organised by Bank of Italy. It is a classic and should be made part of economics/finance reading list in college.

Prof Sen discuses what he does best – Philosophy. What is an absorbing read is linking it to ethics in finance. With much of finance in mess, this one helps connect critical on may ideas.

As PDF text cannot be extracted. Here are the key ideas:

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Connecting American Politics with Presidency of the World Bank

March 15, 2013

An excellent paper by Kathryn Lavelle  of Case Western Reserve University. We all know WB Presidents are selected by US and IMF by Europe via an informal agreement. Ben Steil also had an article on the topic.

This paper goes on to explain the changing relationship of US President with WB President. It features how WB mandate also changed during several years:

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Belgium’s former PM discusses the politics of Eurozone crisis…

March 15, 2013

As this blog keeps saying there is always more to read on EZ and EZ crisis..

A superb discussion (pdf here) on EZ crisis at Brookings. The speaker is former Belgium PM Guy Verhofstadt. He was the PM of Belgium from 1999-08 the period so you get to hear right from the horse’s mouth..

He says, like many others that  EZ was basically a political creation:

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Pope Francis’ Economic Philosophy…

March 14, 2013

Brilliant article by Bloomberg.com editors. Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina, has just been elected as the Pope.

The authors point to  the economic philosophy of the newly elected Pope to be:

As Jorge Mario Bergoglio of Argentina, now known as Francis I, assumes leadership for the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics, we won’t presume to tell him how to think on matters religious. But for the sake of world markets, we hope the new pope will act in the best tradition of Catholic economic thought.

Ideally, that means recognizing the value of free markets and free economies, and realizing that work and trade endow humans with not just wealth but also dignity and freedom. It also means understanding the dangers posed by excessive inequality, the outsize burdens that technological advances and environmental degradation will impose on the poor, and the responsibility of the rich to help the underprivileged navigate a turbulent economic transition.

Most important, as more and more economic activity — from finance to manufacturing to medicine — is done by algorithms and robots, we hope the new pope will be able to communicate the church’s longstanding assertion that economics, to be moral, must be grounded in concern for the individual.

Straight out of Adam Smith’s book. Morality and markets…I frankly was not aware that there is an economic thought here..

Since Pope Leo XIII issued the encyclical “Rerum Novarum” in 1891, Catholic social teaching has focused on ways to impose moral order on economic activity and to mitigate the worst effects of unrestrained commerce on the poor. The concern for the individual — and especially for those left behind — has been perhaps its most insistent theme.

Pope John Paul II’s landmark “Centesimus Annus” in 1991 extended this concern with the individual into the “complex network of relationships” that make up modern economies. He argued that a just society “is not directed against the market, but demands that the market be appropriately controlled by the forces of society and by the state so as to guarantee that the basic needs of the whole of society are satisfied.”

Pope Benedict XVI’s contribution to this tradition, “Caritas in Veritate,” was cryptic in some respects, but he was quite clear that “Every economic decision has a moral consequence” and that “The market is not, and must not become, the place where the strong subdue the weak.”

Beyond his words, Benedict’s actions as pope were consistent with a moral economic framework (his grievous lapses elsewhere notwithstanding). He argued correctly that the roots of the financial crisis were human greed and malfeasance, not a flaw per se in the structure of capitalism.

Superb..

 

 

The financial sector after the crisis…

March 13, 2013

Ignazio Visco, Governor of the Bank of Italy has this super speech on the topic. Couple of topics are likely to continue for a very long time after this crisis. Role of financial sector in the crisis and post-crisis developments is one such topic. Infact much of research on great depression released now also looks at role of banks in the depression.

He begins with a super Amartya Sen quote:

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If not for price stability, Central banking is nothing but mythology….

March 12, 2013

Gerald O’Driscoll of Cato writes this really strongly worded article. Like most Cato Institute econs, he  does not really believe in central banks.

Infact, most other Cato scholars do not even believe central banks can help deliver price stability. O’Driscoll atleast thinks they can but crticises them for failing to deliver price stability. The rest of the other functions/ideas on C-banks like  lender of last resort, central banks must for market economies, central bank independence etc are just myths:

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IMF, social networks and return of political economy…

March 12, 2013

Social networks is quickly becoming an area of focus. The thinking and research on this has just begun.

Nemat Shafik, Deputy MD of IMF in this super speech  discusses impact of social networks on policy in general and IMF thinking.

I would like to start by looking at the forces that shape the way we communicate today, before turning to what this means for institutions that are involved in shaping economic policy. I will end with a few examples that illustrate what these sweeping changes have meant in practice for the way we at the International Monetary Fund engage with our member countries to support economic reform.

She points how today’s hyper-connected world is shaking the way we communicated:

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How US resolved its first debt ceiling crisis

March 11, 2013

A fascinating post by Kenneth Garbade of NY Fed.  It is written on the style of Lords of Finance.

In the second half of 1953, the United States, for the first time, risked exceeding the statutory limit on Treasury debt. How did Congress, the White House, and Treasury officials deal with the looming crisis? As related in this post, they responded by deferring and reducing expenditures, by monetizing “free” gold that remained from the devaluation of the dollar in 1934, and ultimately by raising the debt ceiling.

Well, just like most history episodes particularly econ history ones, one can’t help but compare the eerie similarities to today’s US debt ceiling crisis. The debt ceiling issue keeps coming back to hit the global markets as US keeps piling on debt. And how US resolves it each time just in nick of time should be fairly similar to how they resolved it way back in 1953.

What is most amusing is how fannie Mae rescued the government on debt ceiling crisis in 1954:

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Report on Currency and Finance 2009-12: Fiscal-Monetary Co-ordination

March 4, 2013

RBI’s very useful publication – Currency and Finance 2009-12 is out. It used to ab annual publication earlier. And don’t know why they have taken more than 2.5 years since the last edition was released in 2010.

It is a theme based report with some great write-ups on the theme. This time the theme is: Fiscal-Monetary Co-ordination. Pretty appropriate as well given issues on central bank independence.

Very interesting chapters especially on cash management and RBI Balance sheet etc.

I should be posting more on this after reading the chapters…

 

14 ways an Economist says I Love You…

February 23, 2013

Saturday night is surely not the time for writing a blogpost.  But I could not resist on reading a super post (HT: FB Page of this community – Economic Sociology and Political Economy; thanks to good friend Anshu Dash for the pointer).

Liz Fosslien in this blogpsot mentions about 14 ways an economist says  I love you.  So after posts on how an econ breaks-up and economics of love , there is more from economists on love..

She uses Production  Possibility Frontier, International trade curves, Pigou Club (several econs there) vs. Pick-You Club (only econ), ZIRP vs steady interest, risk of default, natural monopoly, inelasticity etc.. 

This makes it straight to the classroom…It is simply brilliant.

Reasons for Eurozone Crisis: Keynesian or Hayekian?

February 22, 2013

As I keep saying no matter how much you read on EZ crisis, it can never be enough. There are always some different and interesting perspectives to follow.

George Selgin of Univ of Georgia in this note points that there were two critique schools when formation of EZ was being considered – Keynesian and Hayekian:

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Difference between California and Texas…(Funny Story)

February 21, 2013

Missed this Oct-12 speech by Dallas Fed chief Richard Fisher. His speeches are real good full of anecdotes and fire.

The speech is about how US economy has recovered post-2008 crisis. It seems to be the lone running horse (albeit slowly) in derby race of advance economies. After US economy he looks at Texas. I am skipping all this and  getting to the topic.

Texas has emerged strong from the crisis but California continues to bleed. Why? Here is a story comparing governments in two states:

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Economics know-how about financial regulation/stability before the crisis..

February 21, 2013

Richmond Fed chief Jeffrey M. Lacker gives a useful speech.

He covers what econs knew before the crisis in financial regulation space.

The thoughts could be divided into two schools:As policymakers entered 2007, the economics literature offered them two broad but fundamentally different views of the world — two theories of financial instability. One tends to view market institutions and contracts as relatively fixed and the resulting financial system as inherently prone to the type of instability depicted by the simple model of bank runs. Under this theory, an expectation of government support may be necessary to make crises less likely, although that support necessitates regulatory oversight and constraints on banks to replace the market discipline that is lost when counterparties feel protected by government guarantees.

]In the alternative view, private financial arrangements are themselves adaptable and endogenous. Much of the vulnerability observed in financial markets is itself the induced response of market institutions and behaviors to the expectation of government backstop support in the event of distress. In the absence of that expectation, there would be stronger incentives to seek more robust arrangements.

So on the eve of 2007, policymakers were faced with two broad, competing views on the origins of financial market fragility — either it was inherent in the structure of financial arrangements, or it was induced by expectations of government support.

The US policymakers entered the crisis mainly schooled in the first thought. This led to perverse incentives and too big to fail problem. He of course believed in the second school.

He even discusses the broad research which led to development of these two theories starting from Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig theories, mechanism design etc.

He hopes we limit these government interventions and let markets function on their own:

There’s no doubt that the crisis will stimulate research for decades to come. Given the magnitude of the interventions we’ve seen, research that improves financial policy could yield enormous social benefits. In this connection I would note that our most recent estimates at the Richmond Fed are that, as of December 31, 2011, 57 percent of financial sector liabilities benefit from perceived government support. This is up from 45 percent over a decade ago and reflects in part an expansion of implied commitments based on new precedents set during this crisis. In my view, this growth in government support for the financial sector is not sustainable. As economic policy challenges go, I would rate this as second only to the looming federal fiscal imbalance. I sincerely hope we can make progress in the years ahead. 

Nice coverage on financial sector policy research..

 

How European model combines education with vocation…

February 20, 2013

Betty Joyce Nash has a nice article on the topic.

She discusses Europe’s vocation system and how it keeps unemployment in youth low:

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Strong Swiss franc and large current account surplus: a contradiction?

February 20, 2013

Thomas Jordan, chief of SNB in a speech clarifies this issue. However, as the full-speech is in German we only have to do with the summary in English:

The criticism is that Swiss economy records Current Account Surplus. hence, its currency should appreciate and SNB should stop pegging it at 1.2 per EUR.

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TARGET2 balances grew also +because of re-denomination risk..

February 20, 2013

I have tried to figure debate and controversy around  TARGET2 balances as much as possible. It is quite a read and learning about central banking.

I missed this paper by Stephen G CecchettiRobert N McCauley and Patrick McGuire of BIS. Don’t know how.. It is quite a read and simplifies TARGET2 balances and debate around it.

Basically econs point to two reasons for growing TARGET2 balances:

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