Euro at 20: A consortium of West African countries moving towards their own common currency..

November 16, 2018

As Euro celebrates 20 years, we have a currency design competition for another proposed monetary union.

This one is amidst West African countries named Economic Community of West African States.

Basically, in ECOWAS there are two sub-blocks:

  • The West African Economic and Monetary Union (also known by its French-language acronym UEMOA) is an organization of eight, mainly French-speaking, states within the ECOWAS which share a customs union and currency union. Established in 1994 and intended to counterbalance the dominance of English-speaking economies in the bloc (such as Nigeria and Ghana), members of UEMOA are mostly former territories of French West Africa. The currency they all use is the CFA franc, which is pegged to the euro.
  • The West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), established in 2000, comprises six mainly English-speaking countries within ECOWAS which plan to work towards adopting their own common currency, the eco.

I did post about UEMOA and how France continues to control these countries.

It is WAMZ which is deciding to introduce a common currency. Its members are:

Formed in 2000, the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) is a group of six countries within ECOWAS that plan to introduce a common currency called the Eco.[23] The six member states of WAMZ are GambiaGhanaGuineaNigeria and Sierra Leone who founded the organization together in 2000 and Liberia who joined on 16 February 2010. Apart from Guinea, which is Francophone, they are all English-speaking countries. Along with Mauritania, Guinea opted out of the CFA franc currency shared by all other former French colonies in West and Central Africa.

The WAMZ attempts to establish a strong stable currency to rival the CFA franc, whose exchange rate is tied to that of the Euro and is guaranteed by the French Treasury. The eventual goal is for the CFA franc and Eco to merge, giving all of West and Central Africa a single, stable currency. The launch of the new currency is being developed by the West African Monetary Institute based in Accra, Ghana.

The currency’s proposed name is Eco which has similar joining conditions as Euro.

After much dilly dally, action has begun on Eco. Central Bank of Nigeria has floated a competition for the common currency. Apparently, all ECOWAS members have decided to go for this common currency. It even asks for a name for the currency as Eco is not the final name.

Interesting to see this space…


Federal Reserve undergoing changes in banking and monetary policy matters…

November 16, 2018

Several changes underway at Federal Reserve.

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What are we learning about Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services?

November 16, 2018

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard takes us through this interesting fascinating topic.

My focus today is the branch of artificial intelligence known as machine learning, which is the basis of many recent advances and commercial applications.2 Modern machine learning applies and refines, or “trains,” a series of algorithms on a large data set by optimizing iteratively as it learns in order to identify patterns and make predictions for new data.3Machine learning essentially imposes much less structure on how data is interpreted compared to conventional approaches in which programmers impose ex ante rule sets to make decisions.

The three key components of AI–algorithms, processing power, and big data–are all increasingly accessible. Due to an early commitment to open-source principles, AI algorithms from some of the largest companies are available to even nascent startups.4 As for processing power, continuing innovation by public cloud providers means that with only a laptop and a credit card, it is possible to tap into some of the world’s most powerful computing systems by paying only for usage time, without having to build out substantial hardware infrastructure. Vendors have made it easy to use these tools for even small businesses and non-technology firms, including in the financial sector. Public cloud companies provide access to pre-trained AI models via developer-friendly application programming interfaces or even “drop and drag” tools for creating sophisticated AI models.5 Most notably, the world is creating data to feed those models at an ever-increasing rate. Whereas in 2013 it was estimated that 90 percent of the world’s data had been created in the prior two years, by 2016, IBM estimated that 90 percent of global data had been created in the prior year alone.6

The pace and ubiquity of AI innovation have surprised even experts. The best AI result on a popular image recognition challenge improved from a 26 percent error rate to 3.5 percent in just four years. That is lower than the human error rate of 5 percent.7 In one study, a combination AI-human approach brought the error rate down even further–to 0.5 percent.

So it is no surprise that many financial services firms are devoting so much money, attention, and time to developing and using AI approaches. Broadly, there is particular interest in at least five capabilities.8 First, firms view AI approaches as potentially having superior ability for pattern recognition, such as identifying relationships among variables that are not intuitive or not revealed by more traditional modeling. Second, firms see potential cost efficiencies where AI approaches may be able to arrive at outcomes more cheaply with no reduction in performance. Third, AI approaches might have greater accuracy in processing because of their greater automation compared to approaches that have more human input and higher “operator error.” Fourth, firms may see better predictive power with AI compared to more traditional approaches–for instance, in improving investment performance or expanding credit access. Finally, AI approaches are better than conventional approaches at accommodating very large and less-structured data sets and processing those data more efficiently and effectively. Some machine learning approaches can be “let loose” on data sets to identify patterns or develop predictions without the need to specify a functional form ex ante.

What do those capabilities mean in terms of how we bank? The Financial Stability Board highlighted four areas where AI could impact banking.9 First, customer-facing uses could combine expanded consumer data sets with new algorithms to assess credit quality or price insurance policies. And chatbots could provide help and even financial advice to consumers, saving them the waiting time to speak with a live operator. Second, there is the potential for strengthening back-office operations, such as advanced models for capital optimization, model risk management, stress testing, and market impact analysis. Third, AI approaches could be applied to trading and investment strategies, from identifying new signals on price movements to using past trading behavior to anticipate a client’s next order. Finally, there are likely to be AI advancements in compliance and risk mitigation by banks. AI solutions are already being used by some firms in areas like fraud detection, capital optimization, and portfolio management.


One believes that sooner than later we will either have technologists in top management at central banks (even banks) or the top management will have to undergo rigorous tech training. This is no more science fiction but day light reality.

Why we should be interested in the history of currencies

November 15, 2018

Swiss National Bank issued a press release about Ernst Baltensperger’s history of the Swiss franc to appear in Italian. The book was written in 2012 and is available in German and French editions. Sigh! Will have to wait for English edition.

Anyways, further research took me to this wonderful speech by Ernst titled: Why we should be interested in the history of currencies.

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History trivia: Why 19 November is a curious date for much awaited RBI Board meeting…

November 15, 2018

The much awaited RBI Board meeting is slated on 19 November. But if news are to be believed, lot of patchwork is already done. Trust the folks to meet as if nothing has happened.

What is interesting is 19 November also happens to be birthday of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. Reading RBI’s history volumes, one clearly sees how the central bank just becomes a handmaiden of government during her PMship years.  This was largely due to the nationalisation of banks in 1969 which gave government/finance ministry enormous powers over economic and banking matters. Much action during those days came from finance ministry. The joke was that all RBI top management did was to wait for phone calls from Delhi.

It is interesting that we are seeing these battlelines between the two being drawn on 19th November of all dates. We are hearing talks of Section 7 being invoked (its history) where government wants to take away powers being taken away from RBI top management.

In all likelihood, this is just sheer coincidence. But what a coincidence. If we do see government taking control on the date and day, it will be an interesting case of history coming back and biting…

IMF building case for Central Bank Digital Currencies (and mentions hundis too!)

November 15, 2018

Christine Lagarde in this speech discusses discusses pros and cons of issuing a central bank digital currency.

But before discussing CBDC, it was really surprising to see IMF chief mentioning hundis:

Let me begin with the big issue on the table today—the changing nature of money. When commerce was local, centered around the town square, money in the form of tokens—metal coins—was sufficient. And it was efficient.

The exchange of coins from one hand to another settled transactions. So long as the coins were valid—determined by glancing, scratching, or even biting into them—it did not matter which hands held them. But as commerce moved to ships, like those that passed through Singapore, and covered increasingly greater distances, carrying coins became expensive, risky, and cumbersome.

Chinese paper money—introduced in the 9th century—helped, but not enough. Innovation produced bills of exchange—pieces of paper allowing merchants with a bank account in their home city to draw money from a bank at their destination.

The Arabs called these Sakks, the origin of our word “check” today. These checks, and the banks that went along with them, spread around the world, spearheaded by the Italian bankers and merchants of the Renaissance. Other examples are the Chinese Shansi and Indian Hundi bills.

Suddenly, it mattered whom you dealt with. Was this Persian merchant the rightful owner of that bill? Was the bill trustworthy? Was that Shanxi bank going to accept it? Trust became essential—and the state became the guarantor of that trust, by offering liquidity backstops, and supervision.

Why is this brief tour of history relevant? Because the fintech revolution questions the two forms of money we just discussed—coins and commercial bank deposits. And it questions the role of the state in providing money.

Hundis has long been forgotten by researchers in India barring those history folks. Nice to see Lagarde mentioning hundis along with Sakks and Shansi..

Now to CBDC:

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How does Inflation in Indian States differ with the national average?

November 15, 2018

Nice article by Sujata Kundu, Vimal Kishore and Binod B. Bhoi of RBI. It is released in RBI Bulletin for the month Nov-2018.

They look at how inflation is behaving in India’s States:

An analysis of the regional inflation dynamics in India reveals the presence of wide dispersion in inflation across states, largely driven by food price inflation. State level inflation tends to converge to the national average over time, however, validating the choice of national level consumer price inflation as the nominal anchor for monetary policy in India.

Which state has the highest average inflation and volatility? Interestingly, Southern States have higher average inflation (6.8%) compared to others:

Notably, all the southern states had higher average inflation than northern states like Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand as well as states in other regions like Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Bihar recorded the highest inflation of 16.1 per cent (November 2013), while Chhattisgarh recorded the
lowest inflation level of (-) 2.3 per cent (June 2017) as against the national-level maximum of 11.5 per cent (November 2013) and minimum of 1.5 per cent
(June 2017). 

Over this period, inflation and inflation volatility did not exhibit any noteworthy co-movement, which is in contrast with the two-way causality posited in the
literature . In fact, when inflation averaged a high of 10.0 per cent in 2012-13, its volatility was at the lowest in the period of study at 0.5 per cent; volatility rose to 1.2 per cent when average inflation was at its lowest level of 3.6 per cent in 2017-18 (Chart 4a). This relationship alters dramatically, however, in the regional setting.

Unlike the all-India pattern, state-level inflation and inflation volatility co-moved during 2012-13 to 2017-18 (Chart 4b). Another interesting observation is that the states/regions that experienced high average inflation (e.g., Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and West Bengal) also recorded high volatility in inflation.

Much more in the short research paper with graphs and tables. RBI should release more and more of such type research.

Reflections on Bank of Engalnd’s 300 year history…

November 14, 2018

Another superb guest post on Bank of England’s Underground blog. This one is by David Kynaston who wrote Till Time’s Last Sand: A History of the Bank of England 1694-2013.

He points to key lessons from the 300 year history of the bank:

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Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics

November 14, 2018

Gulan Adam of Bank of Finland provides a brief overview in this paper:

Since the Global Financial Crisis, academic economists and policymakers have had to deal with uncomfortable questions about the quality of their models and the state of macroeconomics as a profession. This note offers a summary of this discussion, focusing on the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework and its underpinnings. This class of models reflects both theoretical advances and perennial modeling challenges.

While DSGE modeling developed in times of scarce micro data and limited computational resources, it has much room for improvement given progress along these dimensions and advances in other branches of economics. Key tasks on the to-do-list for model improvement include the modeling on the financial sector, departures from the representative agent and rationality, as well as clarification of the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique. The framework is likely to remain a major research and policy tool, although its limitations call for greater robustness, validation and open recognition of uncertainty in drawing real-life quantitative conclusions.

We need more and more of such papers to help demystify the acronym DSGE…

Why Central bank autonomy is in the government’s “enlightened self-interest”…

November 14, 2018

Avinash Tripathi has a nice piece on the recent turmoil in relations between Indian central bank and government.

There is a bit of everything in the article: political economy, game theory, history, microeconomics and even Sherlock Holmes!

RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya in government crosshairs and what to expect if Section 7 of RBI Act is invoked…

November 14, 2018

Asit Ranjan Mishra of Mint on the ongoing drama between RBI and Finance Ministry.

The government may train its guns on Reserve Bank of India deputy governor Viral Acharya if the confrontation with the central bank escalates at the RBI board meeting on 19 November, a person familiar with the deliberations within central bank’s board said.

In case discussions between the government and RBI break down, the government may choose to invoke Section 7 of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, and at least four of the 11 independent directors of the central bank could move a no-confidence motion against Acharya for publicly airing his views protesting government interference, the person said, asking not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the matter.

If Section 7 of RBI Act is invoked, the five representatives of the central bank, including governor Urjit Patel, and the two finance ministry secretaries have to withdraw from further deliberations of the board. The independent directors will then pass resolutions on contentious issues such as liquidity measures for non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and RBI’s 12 February circular.

“The danger in this board meeting is that it will boil down to voting. If both sides do not budge from their positions after their presentations, they will have to walk out of the room. The government is clear that there needs to be resolution of all the contentious issues at this meeting,” the person said.

Once the government invokes Section 7, the powers of the RBI board will be supreme.

“Subject to any such directions, the general superintendence and direction of the affairs and business of the bank shall be entrusted to a central board of directors which may exercise all powers and do all acts and things which may be exercised or done by the bank,” the relevant part of Section 7 (2) of the RBI Act says.

Hope RBI minutes the meetings and tells us atleast something…

How German women obtained the right to vote 100 years ago?

November 13, 2018

Women won the rights to vote in Germany on 12 Nov 1918.

Here is brief history of how it happened.

How did organisations adapt to change in the 18th and 19th century: Case of Bank of England

November 13, 2018

Bank of England recently held an economic history workshop at the St Clere Estate, home of former governor Montagu Norman.

The Bank of England blog – named as Bankunderground – has been reaching out to econ history scholars to wrote guest posts on the blog. This is fabulous as blog is a great medium to disseminate research ideas. There was an earlier guest post by Prof Barry Eichengreen on lessons from Montagu Norman.

There is another superb post from Anne Murphy, Dean of Humanities and a professor at the University of Hertfordshire. She writes on how Bank of England archives can help us learn about organisational changes at Bank of England itself:

Industrialisation was not the only driver of change during the eighteenth century. Recent historiography has revealed more about the financial and organisational revolutions that helped to shape the British state and the country’s economic development. The Bank of England was at the forefront of these revolutions and a pioneer of new modes of business organisation. A business that started out in a small rented space with only seventeen clerks in 1694 was, by 1815, employing nearly 1,000 workers and occupying most of the Threadneedle Street block. Yet it has been sadly neglected as a case study. What might we find in the Bank’s archives to understand how business adapted to rapid and radical change during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries?

Our first insight actually comes from the extent of that archive. One response to changing organisational priorities was to accumulate information. The need to maintain comprehensive and accurate records meant that the Bank kept nearly everything. So vast was the undertaking that by the 1770s it had to invest in a four-storey fire-proof library. And many of the records preserved there have survived. Look further into the archive and it is possible to gain insights into how a new business model evolves, how a workforce adapts and how an institution conveys trust in a rapidly changing environment.

How the central bank dealt with several challenges such as record keeping, fire, human capital, building bills market and so on…

This one on bank creating trust:

…..the Bank’s directors were keen to signal their connection to the state. Britannia was particularly prominent throughout, stamped on the Bank’s notes, ledgers and letterheads and as a statue over the entrance to the Pay Hall. With her shield and spear signalling defence of the nation and close associations with trade, industry and profit Britannia offered a clear statement of the Bank’s aims and the conflation of those aims with the goals of the state. But this message was an uncomfortable fit with the Bank’s willingness to house a market that was often criticized for its supposed attempts to undermine the nation’s stability and for taking advantage of the exigencies of war.

Britania stamp. Source: Bank of England Archive.

The contradiction was dealt with by the creation of both physical and business separation between the work of managing the public credit and the business of trading the government’s debt. It was not wholly successful, as the transfer clerks’ business sidelines demonstrate. We might ask, therefore, to what extent the Bank could be trusted to serve its two masters: the state, which expected the cost-effective and reliable management of its debt, and the public who lent to the state and expected the Bank to safeguard their investment.

This question is of great importance to historians who seek to understand why the public was willing to lend, throughout the long eighteenth century, to a state so often at war. It has been answered by many scholars with reference to the institutional changes brought about by the Glorious Revolution of 1688.

The role of the Bank in this process was key and the location of the market within its walls did not serve to undermine, but rather to enhance what has been referred to as a ‘credible commitment’ to honour the state’s financial promises. It made the market easy to locate and accessible. It allowed the visitor to the Bank to observe all the processes of providing public credit. Indeed, the Bank was undeniably a space in which public credit was put on display and the financial integrity of the state was demonstrated. From its grand architecture to the open-plan arrangement of the offices to the Rotunda where the brokers and jobbers gathered, visitors were invited to witness public credit at work.

Arguably then, despite all the potential disadvantages of locating the market within the Bank, some wider and more important purposes were realized: those of exposing the functioning of the market in the state’s debt to scrutiny and demonstrating the credibility of public credit. ‘Credible commitment’, therefore, did not just reside in state institutions that might have seemed rather nebulous in the eyes of most public creditors. By the mid-eighteenth century ‘credible commitment’ could be found and observed at the Bank of England. There, credibility lay in the provision of liquidity and a one-stop-shop in which all business relating to the public debt could indeed be done quickly and easily.

Really good stuff..

In the battle between RBI and government, it is high time we look at RBI as an organisation and not just its policies. That will tell us many things we are missing in the debate. After all, RBI is one of the few central banks which has been speaking about lack of independence for a long time. No other central bank complains that much. So is there an organisational design in RBI which has gaps which allows governments to always question the central bank? If yes, how should it be fixed?

If investors care for central bank independence, why does investment flow to China?

November 13, 2018

Manas Chakravarty has a nice piece in Mint:

Economic affairs secretary Subhash Chandra Garg’s tweet in reply to RBI deputy governor Viral Acharya’s hard-hitting speech was widely deplored, but he did have a valid question. To what extent are investors really bothered about central bank independence? If they are, what explains the flood of money that entered China, where the central bank doesn’t even pretend to be independent?

In fact, central bank independence has been in vogue only for the last 30 years. Not everybody is enamoured of it. Some academics have argued that rather than being truly independent, central banks have become handmaidens of international finance. Some have alleged central bankers pursue independence as a means of gaining power and prestige. Critics have said that the increasing emphasis on central bank independence is the result of the power of the financial sector to assert its interests, or the interests of creditors, over those of households and debtors, as inflation targeting results in the redistribution of real income from debtors to creditors. Fingers have been pointed to the rise in inequality in recent decades as a result of central bank policies that have led to huge gains for asset markets. In short, central bank independence is closely bound up with the rise to global pre-eminence of the financial sector.

…..let’s get back to the example of the Chinese central bank. It is unabashedly an arm of the Chinese state and the prime instrument of the government’s financial repression. It is partly because of its lack of independence that China is sitting on top of a volcanic mountain of debt, a mountain that now threatens to blow its top. However, foreign investors in China were not really bothered about the credibility of its central bank. They banked instead on the credibility of the Chinese government and its track record in managing extraordinary economic growth.

It is, therefore, an empirical matter whether investors repose confidence in the central bank or in the country’s government. In Turkey or Argentina, investors would no doubt prefer central bank independence. In China’s case, they seem to believe it doesn’t matter, as they rather ironically seem to have immense faith in the ability of the Chinese Communist Party to deliver the goods.

The question is: Is the Indian central bank or the Indian government more credible to the financial markets? Whom do they trust more?


Bitcoin turns 10: An idea that shook the world monetary order

November 13, 2018

My new piece in moneycontrol: Bitcoin turns 10: An idea that shook the world monetary order.


World War I Centenary: The Morning of November 11, 1918

November 13, 2018

Nice piece by T. Hunt Hooley (teaches History at Austin College).  He is the author of The Great War: Western Front and Home Front.

On the morning of November 11, 1918, fighter pilot and leading American ace Eddie Rickenbacker quietly ambled to the hangar of his aerodrome in France. The night before, in anticipation of the Armistice, all Allied flights were grounded. But Rickenbacker was not known as a rule-follower. He told his crew to roll out his SPAD XIII fighter plane “and warm it up to test the engines.” He climbed into the cockpit, took off, and headed to the trenches of the Western Front. Low clouds kept him low, around five hundred feet. He could see flashes of rifle and machine gun fire from the German trenches.

And then it was 11:00 A.M., the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month. I was the only audience for the greatest show ever presented. On both sides of no-man’s-land, the trenches erupted. Brown-uniformed men poured out of the American trenches, gray-green uniforms out of the German. From my observer’s seat overhead, I watched them throw their helmets in the air, discard their guns, wave their hands. Then all up and down the front, the two groups of men began edging toward each other across no-man’s-land. Seconds before they had been willing to shoot each other; now they came forward. Hesitantly at first, then more quickly, each group approached the other.

Suddenly gray uniforms mixed with brown. I could see them hugging each other, dancing, jumping. Americans were passing out cigarettes and chocolate. I flew up to the French sector. There it was even more incredible. After four years of slaughter and hatred, they were not only hugging each other but kissing each other on both cheeks as well.

Star shells, rockets and flares began to go up, and I turned my ship toward the field. The war was over.

In memoirs, diary entries, and letters, we find that for the fighters of the First World War, the Great thing about the War was its end. In victorious countries, schools let out, impromptu parades and rallies erupted. These outbursts recognized victory, to be sure, but they chiefly celebrated the end of the war. My own grandmother recounted to me, more than once and each time luminously, the ecstatic celebration in her little town of Murray, Kentucky, where school was cancelled and virtually everyone in town gathered in the courthouse square to celebrate. In my recollection, she never mentioned the word “victory” once. In Rickenbacker’s squadron, everyone from pilot to cook joined in a mad celebration, but not of victory, “many of them shouting ‘I survived the war! I survived the war!”


50 years of Gunnar Myrdal’s Asian Drama: History of Indian economy since 1968…

November 13, 2018

Swedish economist Gunnar Myrdal published his book – Asian Drama- 50 years ago in 1968.

Prof Kaushik Basu reviews India’s economic history since 1968 in this paper:

This paper is a short history of the Indian economy since 1968. India today is a changed country from what it was half a century ago, when Myrdal published his Asian Drama. The stranglehold of low growth has been broken, its population below the poverty line has fallen markedly, and India has joined the pantheon of major players globally. This paper analyses the economic policies and the politics behind this transformation; and uses that as a backdrop to take
stock of the huge challenges that lie ahead.

Here is another piece from Prof Ravi Kanbur:

100 Years of World War I: When history rhymes

November 12, 2018

Christine Lagarde of IMF on history lessons from World War I:

Mark Twain once said that “History never repeats itself, but it does often rhyme.” As heads of state gather in Paris this week to mark 100 years since the end of World War I, they should listen closely to the echoes of history and avoid replaying the discordant notes of the past.

For centuries, our global economic fortunes have been shaped by the twin forces of technological advancement and global integration. These forces have the prospect to drive prosperity across nations. But if mismanaged, they also have the potential to provoke calamity. World War I is a searing example of everything going wrong.  

The 50 years leading up the to the Great War were a period of remarkable technological advances such as steamships, locomotion, electrification, and telecommunications. It was this period that shaped the contours of our modern world. It was also a period of previously unprecedented global integration—what many refer to as the first era of globalization, where goods, money, and people could move across borders with relatively minimal impediments. Between 1870 and 1913 we saw large gains in exports as a share of GDP in many economies—a sign of increasing openness.  

All of this created great wealth. But it was not distributed evenly or fairly. This was the era of the dark and dangerous factories and the robber barons. It was an era of massively rising inequality. In 1910 in the United Kingdom the top 1% controlled nearly 70% of the nation’s wealth—a disparity never reached before or after.

Times are again similar:

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Israel says no to issuing e-shekel

November 12, 2018

I had blogged earlier about Israel thinking about issuing e-shekel.

The central bank recently released a report which said no to the idea. It said one should wait and watch this space:

  • Central banks around the world are examining the possibility of issuing digital currency and/or using distributed technologies in the payment systems, but no advanced economy has yet issued digital currency for broad use. The Bank of Israel has also established a team to study the issue.
  • The team does not recommend that the Bank of Israel issue digital currency in the near future.  It is necessary to continue examining the field and to follow developments around the world before there are proper grounds for a decision to recommend issuing digital currency.
  • The team will continue working to study and monitor the issue, and will report to the Bank of Israel’s management semi-annually about its activity and about significant developments in the field.


Tributes to Prof TN Srinivasan

November 12, 2018

Prof TN Srinivasan passed away yesterday.

Tributes from Niranjan (IDFC Institute) and Madan Sabnavis (CARE Ratings).

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