Indian growth beats all expectations

Indian GDP grew by 9.4% in 2006-07 (I blogged about it here). To add on to the previous blog, Agriculture grew by 2.7%, Industry by 11% and Services by 11% respectively.

RBI in its quarterly macroeconomic report in January 2007 had given the GDP projections by the leading banks/financial institutions for the year 2006-07. Here is the summary:

Table 12: Projections of Real GDP for India by Various Agencies for 2006-07 (Per cent)

Agency Overall Growth Agri Industry Services Month of Projection
ADB a) 7.8 .. .. .. Sep-06
ICRA a) 7.4-8.2 2.0 8.2-9.7 9.1-9.7 Jan-06
  b) 8.1 1.0 10.8 9.5 Jul-06
CMIE a) 8.5 2.6 9.7 10.3 Dec-06
NCAER a) 8.1 .. .. .. Nov-06
  b) 8.4 2.7 9.1 10.2 Jan-07
IMF a) 7.3 @ .. .. .. Apr-06
  b) 8.3 @ .. .. .. Sep-06
RBI a) 7.5-8.0 .. .. .. Apr-06
  b) Around 8.0 .. .. .. Oct-06
JP Morgan a) 8.0 .. .. .. Oct-06
  b) 8.4 .. .. .. Dec-06
Citigroup a) 8.3 .. .. .. Sep-06
  b) 8.3 .. .. .. Jan-07
ABN AMRO a) 7.5 .. .. .. Sep-06
  b) 8.2 2.4 8.4 10.0 Dec-06
Indicus Analytics a) 7.9 .. .. .. Sep-06
  b) 8.9 3.0 9.7 10.5 Dec-06
.. : Not Available.      @ : Calendar year 2006.

All the analysts were way off the mark barring Indicus Analytics that was closest to the real figure of 9.4%. As most revised their estimates on December 2006, we cannot even say that estimates were hardly revised during the year.

Most of them were right on agriculture sector but got it wrong on Industry and Services. Not very good times for the economists into estimation etc. They can only take solace from the fact that mostly all got it wrong.

One Response to “Indian growth beats all expectations”

  1. Concerns over World Economy « Mostly Economics Says:

    […] expectations are higher than actual and vice versa. So analysts don’t get it wrong just with India but also with World Economy in […]

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