(Note: This post requires some know-how of cricket)
I have mentioned earlier about the similarity between analysing financial markets and cricket. I witnessed similarity in yesterday’s Indo-Pak ODI match as well.
Prior to the match, (basically after the match at Gwalior) all former players (and analysts) were criticising Shoaib Malik, the Pakistan team captain. They said he is not leading from the front, is unimaginative etc. Some even asked for removing him from captaincy.
Next match, Malik (taking all the criticism in his stride)emerges a match winner scoring 90- odd runs and claiming 3 wickets. And suddenly all changed. The former players are now saying he has led from the front, was imaginative, taking bold decisions etc. It struck me what changed in a matter of 2-3 days? Did Malik make some drastic changes in his batting/bowling/captaincy?
Most analysts of the game would argue and make a point that he brought himself as one down (most wanted him to open the innings), made good bowling changes etc; and thus all this made the difference.
I am not sure. I think it was simply a case of having a right day. No one really knows how you start timing the ball, how you get wickets etc. It simply depends on having that day when you feel good, start things right from the word go etc. And that is what good form is all about. You simply feel good about yourself. It is not as if Malik made some radical changes; it is simply that things worked in Jaipur and didn’t in previous matches. He made moves hoping for a win, it just didn’t materialise.
I am not saying that analysts of the game are wrong etc; all I want to point is too much is being made out of non-events. Many a times some decisions which look really stupid at beginning turn out to be gold (the list is endless) It is simply a gut feeling more than anything else.
Now, the similarity to fin markets. Very often, we see a stock/sector suddenly rising and we have analysts comment on whys and hows (ratio analysis etc) of the rise. And then suddenly it goes down and the analysts move on to the next pack. Again, the idea is not that analysts don’t matter but they try and make non-events an event.
At the end of the day, both cricket and fin markets analysts seem to be doing their jobs :-)