Assorted Links

1. Jeff Frankel says odds of recession in US are above 50%

2. WSJ Blog points to Fedspeak- Kohn and Fisher. It points traders are betting that Fed might raise rates in October to 2.25%

3. WSJ pointsto a Dalas Fed research which says it is difficult to sustain oil prices at USD 100 levels. the summary is

The future of oil prices “will be determined by the same four factors that have shaped the market in recent years — global demand, expectations about future market tightness, the value of the dollar and fear of supply interruptions.” The paper argues “if these factors stay on their present course, prices are likely to be pushed higher.” But, “if one or more factors change, markets could see some easing of price pressures.”

4. Nudges points to a paper that says choices confude and exhaust people. I agree

5. Mankiw points Yen is a negative beta asset

6. Rodrik says Easterly is saved of some earful at a conference on development. Chris Blattman comments on the conference and Easterly

7. Fin Prof points to last day of Bear Stearns on Earth

8. EPSA Blog points to a paper on whether investment in agricultural technology will help in abetting food crisis in future

9. DB Blog points to reform of ports in France

10. TTR reviews growth commission report

11. MR points to tranformation of Chinese higehr education

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