Archive for July 22nd, 2008

Can we forecast exchange rates?

July 22, 2008

Dallas Fed has released a short paper on exchange rate forecasting. The summary is – the models are not good enough as of now and best way to look at exchange rates is random walk.

Nice quick review of basics of exchange rate forecasting.

History of Macroeconomics

July 22, 2008

I read this paper by Greg Mankiw a while back and enjoyed it thoroughly. I went through the paper again and found it even more enjoyable as with blogging thinking has become a lot clearer. I always enjoy Mankiw’s writings and he has not written a paper for a while now.

The paper reviews history of macroeconomics and explains all the key ideas in macroeconomics. It is a must read and is an absolute classic.

Highly recommended and worth revisiting every now and then.

How did Germany avoid great inflation in 1979?

July 22, 2008

One of thebiggest successes and puzzles in central banking history is Bundesbank – Germany’s Central Bank. Success as it managed inflation really well when most central banks struggled and puzzle as it is the only central bank to have been successful using monetary targets ( it means they targeted growth in money supply which was also the main idea by Friedman)

I came across this superb short paper from Otmar Issing where he discusses how Bundesbank was successful in managing inflation. Nice reading.

Assorted Links

July 22, 2008

1. Mankiw points more evidence on people switching choices amidst rising oil prices

2. Rodrik points to the best dev eco blog

3. PSD Blog points climate change

4. DB Blog points poor creditor rights imply poor safety in flying

5. Nudges points to global economics forum being held. It also points to an interesting article on being nudged.

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