I had pointed that China, Korea and Taiwan trade data had declined sharply in November. This was followed by Japan and Thailand. I had raised concern (see this paper for a detailed analysis) whether India would follow as well?
In November 2008, Export and import data was bad, but not as bad as that of above pointed countries. The exports grew by negative 9.9% and imports by 6.1%. On the contrary exports had declined by 12.1% in October 2008 and imports by 10.6%. Hence, compared to October, the decline was not as sharp in exports but we see growth slipping in imports. So, bit of a mixed bag. But again, these are signs of more pessimism as we see negative growth in exports for 2 consecutive months.
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January 2, 2009 at 5:34 pm
[…] policy rates sharply By Amol Agrawal RBI reduced the policy rates sharply. Looking at the sharp decline in trade sector and industrial output, markets were expecting a policy rate cut all along. However, the cuts are […]