Update: It has been awarded to Oliver Williamson and Elinior Ostrom for their work on institutions and governance. I was just seeing all the predictions and links on this post. Tyler Cowen got one half right (Williamson, Tirole would have to wait longer). Few others have also predicted Williamson.
< p>As I enjoy my vacation, I see a few searches in my blog looking for predictions for Nobel Prize for Economics for 2009 (Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel is a more correct award name). This year’s award is to be announced on 12 Oct 2009 . I havent come across any website/link predicting some picks.
Usually Thomson Reuters comes out with a list towards the end of the September. It has come out with a list see below.
This year’s award is going to be interesting as world economy goes through sharpest recession/crisis since Great Depression. The crisis has seen nearly every modern eco theory/idea coming under severe scanner. So, any pick will be a challenge for the Commmitee.The last time such a challenge was faced is for 1998. In 1997the nobel prize was given to Scholes and Merton for Option Pricing Theory. The duo were partners st LTCM which collapsed in 1998 leading to much criticism for the award. It was then given in 1998 to Amartya Sen whose candidature was seen as non-controversial and was long-pending.
This time the challenge is much more given the severity of the crisis. Would it be someone from Institutional Economics to stress on their importance? Or someone from Environmental Economics to push research/thinking in this very important concern? I really don’t know.
Visitors/Readers please comment.
- Tyler Cowen has his list. I am happy that my suggestion is same as Tyler. He says Williamson/Tirole (for institutional economics and industrial organisation) and William Nordhaus (for environmental economics).
- Mankiw points to a Nobel Prize Pool.
Thomson Reuters has come out with its prediction list for 2009. I received an email from Kathryn McDermott informing me of the same. It has named 7 economists in 3 fields – Behavioral economics, Environment Economics and Monetary Economics.
Behavioral Economics – (For their contributions to behavioral economics, including issues of preferences, fairness, and cooperation.)
- ERNST FEHR
Pro fessor and Director of the Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland • Winner of the 2004 Cogito Prize of the Cogito Foundation and the 2008 Marcel Benoist Prize (Switzerland)
ESI Rank: top 1% in Economics, 9 highly cited papers in last decade
- MATTHEW J. RABIN
Edward G. and Nancy S. Jordan Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA • Winner of the 2006 John von Neumann Award and Rajk Laszlo College of Advanced Studies
ESI Rank: top 1% in Economics, 4 highly cited papers in last decade
Environment Economics – For their contributions to environmental economics, particularly with respect to climate change.
- WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS
Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA • Winner of the 2005 Distinguished Fellow Award of the American Economic Association • Ranked 108th in output and 49th in citations, according to Coupe rankings.
- MARTIN L. WEITZMAN
Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA • Guggenheim Fellow 1970-1971 and in 1986 was elected Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. • Ranked 35th in output and 56th in citations, according to Coupe rankings.
Monetary Economics – For their research on monetary policy
- JOHN B. TAYLOR
Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA, and Bowen H. and Mary Arthur McCoy Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford, CA, USA • Recipient of the 2005 Alexander Hamilton Award, U.S. Treasury Department and the 2005 George P. Schultz Public Service Award, Stanford University.
RePEc ranking 54th as of August 2009
- JORDI GALI
Professor, Department of Economics, and Director of the Center for Research in International Economics, Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona, Spain • Winner of 2008 Premi Societat Catalana d¹Economia and recipient in 2008 of the First Prize Award for Best Paper presented at the NBER’S International Seminar on Macroeconomics during its first 25 years
- MARK L. GERTLER
Henry and Lucy Moses Professor of Economics, New York University, New York, NY, USA • 2007-2008 Guggenheim Fellow and 2008 First Prize Award for Best Paper presented at the NBER’S International Seminar on Macroeconomics during its first 25 years
Here are my comments for each of the fields.
- Behavioral Economics- I have read a bit of all the above except Ernst Fehr. The Prize was given in 2002 for behavioral economics and I think giving another one in 2009 will be too early. And not having Thaler in the list for behavioral economics would be like awarding another award for International Trade without having Bhagwati on the list or an award for environemntal economics without having Nordhaus on the list. Moreover Rabin is just about 46 now and as per Nobel Prize winners’ age is too young for the award. But yes whenever behavioral economics is awarded next, Rabin would be a strong contender.
- Environmental Economics- I have read very little about these two guys and environment economics in general. I have to read a lot more on this to comment anything. But yes see some recognition of the importance of the field soon. Till the committee does not award the field, it will always be in the prediction list.
- Monetary Economics- I have read quite a bit of John Taylor and if monetary economics is recognised, he would most likely get the award. His work on getting rules into monetary policy framework is quite a revolution. There are strong critiques of John taylor but this is the case with much of economics. Gertler has written quite a few papers with Bernanke and is a leading proponent with Jordi Gali (see this) on New Keynesian Theory and DSGE Models. Given the current criticism on these models, I don’t think they will be awarded this time.
So let’s wait for 12 October….
- WSJ Blog also chips in with a long long list