Forecasting recessions mostly off the mark….

IMF’s research bulletin for March 2010 has some good reviews. There is a literature survey on forecasting recessions, literature survey on growth determinants (technical stuff) and Prakash Loungani of IMF answers 7 questions on housing price cycles. Incidentally, Loungani’s works features majorly in forecasting recessions as well. I had pointed to his paper earlier as well.

In forecasting recessions review:

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Lehman’s Repo 105 trick to hide its true debt

I woke up to this issue a bit late. I had read about it somewhere but didn’t strike me. Thanks to this article by Wharton Knowledge Centre I was alerted of an accounting trick by Lehman to hide its true debt.

 Jenner & Block has prepared a detailed report on Lehman’s collapse. The central message of the report is how Lehman uses a trick called Repo 105 to show its balance sheet better than it actually was. Wharton article explains: