Interesting Links, interviews and conferences

Here it goes:

  • Krugman restates US is heading for Japan’s lost decade days.
  • FRBSF economists have this interesting paper where they compare previous recoveries with this one (though it could be early days still). They explain why recovery this time would be faster than previous 2 recessions but slower than earlier V shaped recoveries
  • James Hamilton has a series of charts to explain the impact of Europe economy. As he says, all charts look similar.
  • Jean Claude Trichet interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ)

FAZ: Mr President, many Germans are asking themselves whether our money is still safe. What do you have to say to them?

Trichet: The European Central Bank has a track record of successfully meeting its objective of keeping inflation below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. For over 11 years since its establishment – including the current period – the ECB has succeeded in doing just that. Over this entire period, we have achieved an average annual inflation rate of less than 2%, but close to 2%, in the euro area. And in Germany it is even significantly lower. The facts speak for themselves. No central bank in Europe – not even the Deutsche Bundesbank – has achieved such a low rate of inflation over such a long period of time.

  • Paul Romer interview explaining the charter cities concept. I found this really funny:

Are there tangible plans to start a charter city anywhere?
Madagascar’s former president, Marc Ravalomanana, saw promise in the idea. He asked me to find credible democracies that would join as guarantors. Unfortunately, a coup ousted him before we made much progress. Quiet conversations in similar countries continue. Leaders in developing countries recognise the need to try something new.

You mentioned arrogance and ignorance. What do you mean by that?

 

Our title is ironic. Countries are often in the middle of these huge, speculative bubbles, and yet even the smartest people who know there have been these accidents in the past convince themselves that they won’t have the same problem. In the recent crisis, the excuse was, this time, we have global financialization, better monetary policy, rocket-science finance and China. But the system still couldn’t take the stress.

1. Count the economic collapse of Greece as an intellectual victory for Douglass North and his brand of “institutions matter” economics.

  • Tyler Cowen gave a talk at World bank recently on what should world bank economists do. His main points are here.
  • ECB colloquium in honour of Lucas Papademos. outgoing Vice President. Good speeches and papers there. Though only a few are linked so far.
  • Atlanta Fed conference on Financial System after the Crisis
  • NYT has an excellent profile of Cass Sunstein, the man who wants to nudge us. Also check out the agency he is heading - Office of Information & Regulatory Affairs called OIRA
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