Nobel Prize for Economics 2010 Predictions

On visiting Nobel Prize website, I found out that this year economics prize will be given on October 11, 2010(Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel is a more correct award name).

Who will win it this time?

I havent come across any website/link predicting some picks. Thomson Reuters come out with a list but it is towards late September. Other bloggers/economists will come out with a list as the award date nears.

Last year, couple of choices cropped up and most popular on the list were William Nordhaus (Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University) and  Martin Weitzman ( Professor of Economics, Harvard University) fo their work on Environment Economics.  Then names of Fama/French, Shiller/Thaler etc were also on the list.

Lat year I also said this which is apt even now:

This year’s award is going to be interesting as world  economy goes through sharpest recession/crisis since Great Depression. The crisis  has seen nearly every modern eco theory/idea coming under severe scanner.  So, any pick will be a challenge for the Commmitee.The last time such a challenge was faced is for 1998. In 1997 the nobel prize was given to Scholes and Merton for Option Pricing Theory. The duo were partners st LTCM which collapsed in 1998 leading to much criticism for the award. It was then given in 1998 to Amartya Sen whose candidature was seen as non-controversial and was long-pending.

This time the challenge is much more given the severity of the crisis. Would it be someone from Institutional Economics to stress on their importance? Or someone from  Environmental Economics to push research/thinking in this very important concern? I really don’t know.

The award was finally given to Ostrom and Williamson for their work on commons and institutions. So in a way I was kind of right.

The same situation applies even now and infact it is quite worse. So many economists have come forward criticising state of economics and calling it dark age of economics.  So, big resurrection is needed and non-controversial names to be picked. Given the choices available, environmental economics looks the safest bet.

I will keep pointing to links etc as soon as others chip ion with their predictions as well. Vistors to this blog, kindly respond. Who do you think will take the award in these pressure times in field of economics?

Update:

Thomson Reuters comes out with its 2010 predictions:

Alberto Alesina
Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economics, Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA USA
Why: for theoretical and empirical studies on the relationship between politics and macroeconomics, and specifically for research on politico-economic cycle

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton NJ USA
Why: for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment

John H. Moore
George Watson’s and Daniel Stewart’s Professor of Political Economics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, and Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, London School of Economics, London, England
Why: for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment

Kevin M. Murphy
George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL USA, and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford CA USA
Why: for pioneering empirical research in social economics, including wage inequality and labor demand, unemployment, addiction, and the economic return of investment in medical research, among other topics

Interesting choices again. Though I doubt whether Alesina will make it. He has lately been in the news for his analysis and comments that fiscal consolidation leads to growth. But there is no doubt that his work on political economy is very good.

Kiyotaki and Moore’s works are much in demand after this crisis. They truly deserve it for shaping the macro-finance models and linking financial cycles to macroeconomic ones.

Murphy is an interesting and different choice. A great mind who has linked economics with many different fields.

Thomson Reuters has also released a pending list and each one could get as well:

•2002-2005: Robert J. Barro; Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French; Paul Michael Romer; Richard H. Thaler
•2006: Jagdish N. Bhagwati and Avinash K. Dixit; Dale W. Jorgenson; Oliver D. Hart and Bengt R. Holmstrom
•2007: Elhanan Helpman and Gene M. Grossman; Jean Tirole; Robert B. Wilson and Paul R. Milgrom
•2008: Lars P. Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent, and Christopher A. Sims; Martin S. Feldstein; Armen A. Alchian and Harold Demsetz
•2009: Ernst Fehr and Matthew J. Rabin; William D. Nordhaus and Martin L. Weitzman; John B. Taylor and Jordi Gali and Mark L. Gertler

That is quite a list. May the best one win.

Addendum:

As it is very year, there is a lot of discussio on the topic. So many people have written their predictions on the post. From comments Daron Acemoglu seems to be very popular.

• Tyler Cowen makes his predictions.
• iPredict website is running contracts to predict the winner. So far, Shiller and Thaler are leading the list.Shiller’s probability is 30.10% and Thaler is at 28.2%. (HT: MR)

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