Nobel Prize for Economics 2010 Predictions

On visiting Nobel Prize website, I found out that this year economics prize will be given on October 11, 2010(Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel is a more correct award name).

Who will win it this time?

I havent come across any website/link predicting some picks. Thomson Reuters come out with a list but it is towards late September. Other bloggers/economists will come out with a list as the award date nears.

Last year, couple of choices cropped up and most popular on the list were William Nordhaus (Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University) and  Martin Weitzman ( Professor of Economics, Harvard University) fo their work on Environment Economics.  Then names of Fama/French, Shiller/Thaler etc were also on the list.

Lat year I also said this which is apt even now:

This year’s award is going to be interesting as world  economy goes through sharpest recession/crisis since Great Depression. The crisis  has seen nearly every modern eco theory/idea coming under severe scanner.  So, any pick will be a challenge for the Commmitee.The last time such a challenge was faced is for 1998. In 1997 the nobel prize was given to Scholes and Merton for Option Pricing Theory. The duo were partners st LTCM which collapsed in 1998 leading to much criticism for the award. It was then given in 1998 to Amartya Sen whose candidature was seen as non-controversial and was long-pending.

This time the challenge is much more given the severity of the crisis. Would it be someone from Institutional Economics to stress on their importance? Or someone from  Environmental Economics to push research/thinking in this very important concern? I really don’t know.

The award was finally given to Ostrom and Williamson for their work on commons and institutions. So in a way I was kind of right.

The same situation applies even now and infact it is quite worse. So many economists have come forward criticising state of economics and calling it dark age of economics.  So, big resurrection is needed and non-controversial names to be picked. Given the choices available, environmental economics looks the safest bet.

I will keep pointing to links etc as soon as others chip ion with their predictions as well. Vistors to this blog, kindly respond. Who do you think will take the award in these pressure times in field of economics?


Thomson Reuters comes out with its 2010 predictions:

  • Alberto Alesina
    Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economics, Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA USA
    Why: for theoretical and empirical studies on the relationship between politics and macroeconomics, and specifically for research on politico-economic cycle
  • Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
    Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton NJ USA
    Why: for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment
  • John H. Moore
    George Watson’s and Daniel Stewart’s Professor of Political Economics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, and Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, London School of Economics, London, England
    Why: for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment
  • Kevin M. Murphy
    George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL USA, and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford CA USA
    Why: for pioneering empirical research in social economics, including wage inequality and labor demand, unemployment, addiction, and the economic return of investment in medical research, among other topics
  • Interesting choices again. Though I doubt whether Alesina will make it. He has lately been in the news for his analysis and comments that fiscal consolidation leads to growth. But there is no doubt that his work on political economy is very good.

    Kiyotaki and Moore’s works are much in demand after this crisis. They truly deserve it for shaping the macro-finance models and linking financial cycles to macroeconomic ones.

    Murphy is an interesting and different choice. A great mind who has linked economics with many different fields.

    Thomson Reuters has also released a pending list and each one could get as well:

    •2002-2005: Robert J. Barro; Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French; Paul Michael Romer; Richard H. Thaler
    •2006: Jagdish N. Bhagwati and Avinash K. Dixit; Dale W. Jorgenson; Oliver D. Hart and Bengt R. Holmstrom
    •2007: Elhanan Helpman and Gene M. Grossman; Jean Tirole; Robert B. Wilson and Paul R. Milgrom
    •2008: Lars P. Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent, and Christopher A. Sims; Martin S. Feldstein; Armen A. Alchian and Harold Demsetz
    •2009: Ernst Fehr and Matthew J. Rabin; William D. Nordhaus and Martin L. Weitzman; John B. Taylor and Jordi Gali and Mark L. Gertler

    That is quite a list. May the best one win.


    As it is very year, there is a lot of discussio on the topic. So many people have written their predictions on the post. From comments Daron Acemoglu seems to be very popular.

    • Tyler Cowen makes his predictions.
    • iPredict website is running contracts to predict the winner. So far, Shiller and Thaler are leading the list.Shiller’s probability is 30.10% and Thaler is at 28.2%. (HT: MR)

    33 Responses to “Nobel Prize for Economics 2010 Predictions”

    1. Tadesse Demissie Says:

      I predict
      DARON ACEMOGLU for 2010 Noble prize in Economics.

    2. Justin Sun Says:

      Lars Hansen,Tomas Sargent,Robert Barro,Robert Townsend,wish them good luck this time(They deserve it,don‘t they?)。
      Andrei Shleifer,Matthew Rabin,Richard Thaler, for their pioneering work in behavioral economics。

    3. Ran Says:

      Professor Kaushik Basu of Cornell, for his contribution to theory of games in understanding human behaviour and his contribution to development economics

    4. Luis Daza Says:

      C. Sims for econometrics
      Peter Diamond for Optimal taxation A Public Debt
      Paul Romer for End Economic Growth
      Jean tirole For regulation and Game Theory

    5. McW Says:

      Robert Shiller deserves it this time.

    6. randomwalk Says:

      D. Mortensen and C. Pissarides for Matching Models of the Labor Market; or
      P. Romer, P. Aghion and P. Howitt for Endogenous Growth Theory

    7. To uger til Nobel @ Punditokraterne Says:

      […] er faktisk gode bud, selvom Helpman sandsynligvis skule dele en eventuel pris med Gene Grossman. Mostly Economics nævner miljøøkonomerne William Nordhaus og Martin Weitzman som gode og politiske korrekte bud. […]

    8. ceterisparibus Says:

      DARON ACEMOGLU deserves it!

    9. Armchair economist Says:

      Michael Porter for his work on competitive advantage

    10. Vivek Kumar Says:

      Dear ALL,
      the brief history (1969-2009) of the Economics NOBEL has seen
      many great economists win the crown but its also sprinkled with many
      IgNOBEL misses ( the likes of Kalecki, Kaldor, Robinson, Bauer,
      Bhagwati; to name but a few !)…………… therefore, the history
      and the mystic, reaffirm that the Nobel committee might spring
      surprises again !
      Having said that, one more pertinent point is that
      much of the economics profession has been caught wrongfooted through
      the spasms of the Great Recession ( 2007-10 ?)
      therefore, a field which is both non-controversial (
      most noble for linked to Mother Nature, herself) and at the same time,
      absolutely indispensable to the future of mankind and planet
      earth…….i.e. environmental economics; should and will emerge as
      the clear winner this time around (11th october).
      a prize to environmental econ. is long due; exceptional
      economists like Nordhaus, Thaler and Norgaard have made great
      contributions to the discipline………………they must and will
      win this time !!!
      another very important factor in their favor is that, the
      economics Nobel has become interdisciplinary….. last year’s winner,
      Elinor OSTROM is a political scientist ! the 2002 winners Daniel
      Kahneman & Vernon Smith were trained psychologists; since an
      environment scholar has not won it + the perils of untrammelled
      ‘global finance’ and the proliferation of the GDP growth numbers
      around the world, depleting the constant supplies of the fixed natural
      resource base, spelling DOOM over a foreseeable future; the world
      chorus for ‘sustainability’………… means that the prize this
      time will go to environmental economics !!!
      its not that the environment and the sustainability thing has
      not been recognized by the Nobel committee… the peace award to Al
      Gore & the IPCC; the 2004 peace award to Wangaari Mathai for the Green
      Belt Movement…………………..
      therefore, the most ‘NOBLE’ of fields in economics; ie,
      environmental economics , which is devising and recommending the most
      ‘NOVEL’ of approaches for the global economy, should, must & will win
      the economics ‘NOBEL’ this time !!!!

    11. Chokri Aloui Says:

      I predict
      Jean Tirole and Richard Schmalensee for Economics of Multi-sided Platforms.

    12. Alexander Gerschenkron Says:

      This might finally be the year when the organizers realise that Nobel never intended economists to be awareded this prize – especially in the light of the mainstream of the discipline failing to advance the subject beyond the usual ludicrous assumptions. Cēterīs paribus!

    13. Bruno Says:

      I predict Cliff Chew Kuo Ting for his works on New Economic Geography

    14. Liu Xun Says:

      Yes! Cliff deserves it!

    15. Trina Says:

      Interesting the beginning qualifying statement regarding the ‘real’ name of this prize…just to remind the followers of the economic prize of its second class status nature to the ‘real’ Nobel prizes…

    16. EddieV Says:

      Kevin Murphy

    17. Elnino Says:

      Daron Acemoglu will get this time, I think.

    18. Bob Says:

      Kyle, Glosten, Milgrom for their work on market microstructure?

    19. Jae L Says:

      Economic theory contributes the policy, not just for the government, but also for the individual behavior. For that manner, the theory should be the benefits to the society paralleling the idea of the prize. It’s the peer prize since it’s academia based contribution, so it’s not biased when the expectation revealed in Lars Hansen, Tomas Sargent, Eugene Fama, Bengt Holmstrom, Oliver Hart, Jean Trole, Andreu Mas-Colell

    20. Vhs Says:

      Paul m romer, gene gross man, e. Helpmann

      Nordvhaus, m. Wetzman,

      N. Roubini, shiller

    21. wre Says:

      Grossman, Helpmann never for end growth (or anything else). It should be either Romer, Aghion, Howitt (better) or Romer is some other combination. Doubt this year though…

    22. Jose Says:

      Jordi Galí!!

    23. Atmania Otmane Says:

      Me, i wish that governance theorist wins this year, but to be realistic, Robert J shiller and his works on Behavioural Finance

    24. Atmania Otmane Says:

      Me, i wish that governance theorist wins this year, but to be realistic, Robert J shiller and his works on Behavioural Finance deserve Nobel 2010

    25. Raza Naeem Says:

      Hi everybody, I am a political and development economist by profession. All the opinions and speculations above are very interesting and each has merit, although in the wake of the Great Economic Meltdown at Wall Street someone who has worked against received wisdom and orthodox theories in economics should be awarded like Joe Stiglitz in the aftermath of the Asian Financial crisis and his subnsequent resignation from the World Bank, and the award to Paul Krugman last year. Perhaps it’s too early in his year, but the Cambridge economist Ha-Joon Cgang should get a Nobel nod in my opinion. His latest book is a stern and informed critique of capitalism, while remaining committed to capitalist values. His past work has been a critique of the ‘development’ policies of developed states which work against developing countries and thus endanger global prosperity. I also like the chances of Robert Shiller and Pranab Bardhan.

    26. Jessika Says:

      what about rubinstein?

    27. Ram Says:

      How about Nouriel Roubini?

    28. Prognosticator Says:

      Joel Hasbrouck, Hans Stoll, or Maureen O’Hara.

    29. sadok driss Says:

      The Nobel Prize in Economics brought up controversy in 1979 when two economists shared that prestigious prize,namely Dr Théodore Schultz and
      Sir Arthur Lewis,even though their theories were opposite to each other.
      This led,then,Albert O Hirschman,a well known economist specializing in
      Latin America,to levy a heavy criticism,claiming that the scholars supposed
      to share that prize ,provide consensus ,not paradoxes.Of course,the choice
      is hard,and the candidates for such an Honor are numerous.Some winners
      forgot about that prize,because of their age.In fact,Professor Leonid Hurwick,
      from the University of Minnesota,Twin Cities,did get such a Prize,at 90 of age,
      that was a record set for the first time.Remembering that this Prize was awarded for the first time,in 1969,one of the two recipients was Jan Tinbergen

    30. Mostly Economics – 2010 in review « Mostly Economics Says:

      […] The busiest day of the year was October 11th with 2,622 views. The most popular post that day was Nobel Prize for Economics 2010 Predictions. […]

    31. Internet Radio Says:

      Internet Radio…

      […]Nobel Prize for Economics 2010 Predictions « Mostly Economics[…]…

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