Economics of KBC choices…

The fifth edition of KBC series (Kaun Banega Crorepati (KBC) is a popular TV show modelled on Who wants to be a millionaire) has just started on 15 Aug 2011. needless to say the host Amitabh Bachchan continues to be excellent with his diction and ability to charm the audiences.

I was particularly interested in the choices KBC gives to the hot seat participants (one slected to take the quiz). Basically you have four choices for each question. In the earlier KBC editions (before 2010) you had four lifelines which you could use if stck in a question:

• Phone a friend (call a friend/relative to help answer the q)
• Audience Poll (take a poll of the studio audience on the answers)
• Fifty Fifty (two answers are eliminated, leaving you with two choices.)
• Flip (question changes)

This has been changed from KBC4. Instead of flip there is ask an expert and Fifty 50 has been twisted to Double dip:

• Phone a friend (call a friend/relative to help answer the q)
• Audience Poll (take a poll of the studio audience on the answers)
• Double Dip (allows you to make two answers from the four choices)
• Ask an expert (now there is some expert amidst the audience who helps you answering the question)

So, Fifty-Fifty basically increased the probability of getting right answer to 50% (as two are eliminated). In double Dip you begin with 25% (one from four) and if wrong then 33% (one from three) for the final choice. Fifty-Fifty was clearly a better lifeline for the hot seaters. So, if KBC wants people to win more they should reintroduce 50-50.

I had read somewhere that surprisingly audience poll is very effective and phone a friend the least effective. But then people usually use audience poll for easy/medium-tough questions. People use friend help lifeline in tough  questions and most of the time either time is over or the friend is confused. In a tough question (those with higher prize money), audience poll usually shows no clear majority.

Actually, it will be interesting to evaluate all these more empirically.

Another addition this time is the threshold level. The threshold level is the level which if you cross, you take minimum that amount. So say, the threshold is Rs. 3,20,000 and it is placed at 10th question. You answer 10 questions and take minimum that amount. In case you are unable to answer higher level questions, you still get Rs. 3,20,000. This was done so that people who cross certain levels should not return with zero amount.

So you had following thresholds:

• KBC 1 – Rs 10,000 (5th q); Rs 3,20,00o (10th q)
• KBC 2 and 3 (final amount raised from Rs 1 cr to Rs 2 cr, the threshold levels were doubled as well):  Rs 20,000 (5th q); Rs 6,40,00o (10th q)
• KBC 4 (no of qs shortened to 13 from 15 and amount raised to 5 Cr):  Rs 10,000 (2nd q); Rs 3,20,00o (7th q); Rs 1,00,00,000 (12th q)

In KBC 5 there is only one threshold and participant has to choose his level. So, a participant chooses the threshold as per his ability. But again KBC has made this unfavorable to hot seaters. People usually choose around 6th and 7th question and in case there is a wrong step before, they get nothing.

Infact this selection of threshold in few episodes so far, suffers from anchoring bias where people are selecting it based on KBC 4 (fresher in memories it was only a few months ago)  which kept it at Rs 3,20,000. So, people are keeping it around that level. The sample is too small as of now. Need to see more episodes to figure this better.

Overall, KBC 4 and KBC 5 have made lives more difficult for hot seaters by giving them fewer choices and tougher lifelines….