Statistics from 16th Lok Sabha Elections…

What a weekend! As the results flew and shocked one and all, the blogger wishes he was a political analyst. I mean this election will generate many a thesis and books in coming years. It was as some news channel said – Perfect Tsunamo just stormed the Indian political scene.

Anyways, EPW has these two interesting pieces – first a stats page where one can look at the overall numbers and look at the state-wise map for seat distribution.

Two, is this piece looking at the reasons for the huge voter turnout in the elections. It was pretty much an anti-UPA wave. Such high turnouts were seen in the past as well when people voted in large numbers to throw out the incumbent:

It is now well accepted that there is a large anti-incumbency feeling among voters against the United Progressive Alliance. Does that explain the high polling numbers? Or could one say that the high polling numbers as compared to 2009 explain a definite anti-incumbency wave? Or a pro-opposition – in particular for the BJP- consolidation?

While high polling numbers in previous Lok Sabha elections have definitely carried a political message (60+% voting in 1984 signifying a wave in favour of the Congress; 60+% voting in 1998 signifying a decisive support to an opposition coalition led by the NDA), the high polling numbers in 2014 have followed similar numbers in the assembly elections. In the assembly elections, no significant pattern has emerged in terms of explaining anti-incumbency or pro-incumbency against state governments, corresponding to high polling percentages. But what is clear is that in assembly elections held close to 2014, especially in the previous year, the Congress party has done relatively worse in all elections which has had high polling. This could signify an anti-incumbency effect against the national party in such states (Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Chhattisgarh & Punjab). 

One could therefore surmise that there is indeed an anti-incumbency trend that is evident in the high polling numbers across various states, particularly in parts of northern and western India. It is difficult though to attribute the high polling numbers to favour a particular opposition party though, across states. It can be surmised that which-ever opposition party (at the national level) is in a direct fight against the Congress, it stands to benefit in the anti-incumbency trend in states with continuing high polling numbers as seen in respective assembly elections. 

This limited study will not detail the trends shown in Figure 2, which could be elaborated upon when full data for all constituencies are made available post the elections. 

Will try and point to more such analysis in coming days..This is going to be a hot topic for many days..

One Response to “Statistics from 16th Lok Sabha Elections…”

  1. Joel Lionel Fernandes Says:

    Worth Reading

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