Archive for October 17th, 2014

China ..from virtuous cycle to vicious cycle…

October 17, 2014

It is kind of funny to imagine how quickly an economy declines once the whole world (read economists) start praising the growth rates, models etc.  We have seen this across host of countries.

China is one such example. What was once touted as Chinese strength – undervalued currency, limited growth of finance sector, role of government, industrial policy etc. – is becoming its weakness as well.

Keyu Jin of LSE writes on how Chinese have entered the vicious cycle:

Most economists have a reason to be worried about China’s economy – whether it be low consumption and large external surpluses, industrial overcapacity, environmental degradation, or government interventions like capital controls or financial repression. What many fail to recognize is that these are merely the symptoms of a single underlying problem: China’s skewed growth model.

That model is, to some extent, a policy-induced construct, the result of a deep-rooted bias toward construction and manufacturing as the leading drivers of economic development. This predilection harkens back to the Great Leap Forward of the 1950s, when scrap metal was melted to meet wildly optimistic steel-production targets, thereby advancing Mao’s dream of rapid industrialization.

Today, China’s proclivity for industrial production is manifested in large-scale manufacturing and infrastructure projects, encouraged by direct and indirect government subsidies. By boosting investment and generating tax revenue for local governments, this approach has a more immediate positive impact on GDP than efforts to develop the service sector.

But the model also carries considerable costs. Indeed, China is now locked in a vicious economic circle, sustained by seemingly unrelated distortionary policies that are, in fact, deeply interconnected, even symbiotic.

And the story has started in another direction. How convenient economics is really. Argue on both sides with ease.

I have another side of the story. Countries and companies which wish to grow and in a sustained manner should avoid all the hype and buzz. The policy-makers should maintain a low profile and not be too bothered about what the world has to say. The more you avoid all the attention and photo-ops better are the chances for growth and sustenance. But this is so difficult to practice..

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Coal industry and corruption cases are not limited to India..

October 17, 2014

Nice piece by Marina Lou of Greenpeace International.

She says how coal industry worldwide is rife in corruption:

Juan Pablo Perez Alfonso, one of the founders of OPEC, once compared the world’s fossil-fuel use to “drowning in the devil’s excrement.” There is certainly plenty of evidence supporting his prediction that the fossil-fuel industry, with its powerful corrupting influence, will “bring us ruin.” Indeed, coal-related corruption stories are breaking worldwide, shining a light on the murky space between “illegal” and “improper” where the extractive industries work.

Last year, in the Australian state of New South Wales, the Independent Commission Against Corruption investigated former Labor ministers Eddie Obeid and Ian Macdonald for conspiring to defraud the state over the issuance of multi-million-dollar licenses for coal exploration and mining. Today, the ICAC is conducting an even more far-reaching and complex investigation into a number of figures from the Australian Labor Party and the Liberal/Nationals Coalition, including for favoring the interests of Australian Water Holdings, a major infrastructure company.

Last month, India’s Supreme Court found that all 218 coal-mining licenses allocated by the government in 1993-2009 had been granted in an “illegal and arbitrary” manner, with the committee responsible for the process lacking transparency and rife with corruption. Following the landmark decision, the government has canceled 214 of the coal block allocations – and has fined several companies that have already begun production.

For its part, Indonesia is set to revoke the contracts of 17 coal producers that failed to pay government royalties. And, since the beginning of this year, the country’s corruption commission has been focusing on the extractive industry, including the state officials who facilitate mining companies’ illegal activities.

Likewise, China’s ongoing anti-corruption drive – the largest in its modern history – has begun to focus on the coal industry. Last month, two Communist Party officials from the coal-rich Shanxi province were charged with corruption and abuse of power, signaling that Shanxi may well move to the forefront of President Xi Jinping’s quest to eliminate entrenched corruption in the Party’s ranks. As Gao Qinrong, a former journalist from Shanxi, recently described the province, “It has coal; coal brought money; that brought corruption.”

These stories highlight a simple truth: Where the coal industry operates, bribery and venality are likely to be rampant. But this does not have to be the case. In order to reduce – if not eliminate – such corruption, several fundamental weaknesses in the regulation of how mining contracts are allocated must be addressed.

Then there are obvious ideas on how to limit corruption by increasing transparency. The natural resources if not managed well end up being a curse. I mean if places like Aus cannot manage, it is really difficult for others as well. So what to do? Make corruption legal in such cases?

 

Economics of Parenting…linking inequality with parenting styles

October 17, 2014

Pikeetymania all over… Inequality is being linked to all kinds of things and this time on parenting styles.

This this post, Matthias Doepke and Fabrizio Zilibotti connect the two things.  They say in societies where equality is high, parents allow children to be more imaginative and be carefree. In societies, where the ineq is high, parents are more demanding and strict:

(more…)


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