Archive for April 3rd, 2015

Expect agriculture GDP growth to be zero to marginal in current calendar year

April 3, 2015

India’s eminent agri economist Ashok Gulati’s  raises concerns over not just this year but future agri growth as well (dated interview):

ET Now: What are the initial signs? Is it too soon to try and cast apprehensions about how the monsoon and crop patterns will turn out for the current calendar year?

Ashok Gulati: It is pretty clear that the agriculture GDP growth is going to be almost zero or very marginal because you literally had a drought in the kharif season and we were expecting some relief in the rabi season. That hope has dampened now and overall we may end up with a minimal growth in agriculture GDP.
ET Now: Various state governments have put out various estimates for the crop damage so far. Which states, according to you, would be the most hit?
Ashok Gulati: At present this western disturbance has impacted quite a bit of Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana and all the way to Punjab and even Jammu and Kashmir and UP’s western part particularly. So there is quite a bit of patch that is impacted by this and depending upon which crops are the dominant crops in that region, like Maharashtra would be suffering quite a bit in vegetables and fruits. Rajasthan has suffered in terms of mustard, chana, chickpea and also wheat. Haryana in terms of wheat. There is some damage in Punjab also in terms of wheat. Somewhat Punjab is contained compared to Haryana. Also, in Madhya Pradesh wheat has been impacted quite a bit. So, you have a scenario where reasonably a sizable population of the agriculture has suffered.
….
ET Now: What if the rains are normal, can things then start to look a bit better or those two are not related per se?
Ashok Gulati: We always start with a hope that the rainfall will be normal every year, but this late rains and cooling down of weather does not indicate good things even for the monsoon. Normally, when at this time there is a rise in or cooling of temperatures and rains, then you have a fear or El Nino coming in because then the whole thing goes to the other side. I hope we get a normal rainfall, but we started even last year like that and we ended up with 12% deficit in the basic monsoon season — June to September.
If we had another one, then the situation will be pretty bad on the agriculture front. You have to look at two things. As consumers we are only concerned with the prices, but you also have to think of the largest number of labour force which is engaged in agriculture. 49% of your work force is engaged in agriculture and those who have lost their crops have hardly anything to fall back on
This country has to pay attention to agriculture. The last three years’ average rate of growth in agriculture GDP is 2%. That was presuming that this year we will have 1.1% and that was before this downfall. There is a basic strategic change that we need in our policy and if you neglect agriculture, it will come back to haunt you as a “Spanish ulcer”
Spanish ulcer ? Here it is. India’s biggest problem will be about basics – food, water etc
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The issue of authenticity of Indian economics/economists

April 3, 2015

Ajay Shah raises a very important and ignored issue which I just mentioned briefly in a previous post.

He wonders why India based economics/economists do not get adequate dues. We always need appreciation from the west. Infact, without the west blessings, one does not get anywhere in Indian economic space. It is even more amazing to see such a post from a person who believes in anything but global best practices. This blog itself has raised this issue in multiple posts:

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How Bangalore has geopolitics of its own..

April 3, 2015

Interesting article by Thejaswi Udupa.

She says Bangalore is a nation by itself:

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Does Microfinance Still Hold Promise for Reaching the Poor?

April 3, 2015

WB chips in on the hot issue. The research department had a discussion on status of microfinance.

Key findings:

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On April Fools’ Day, Planet Money Tries Out Economics Jokes..

April 3, 2015

🙂 Nothing better than to celebrate April Fool’s day cracking economics jokes. As that is what econs have been doing for a while- fooling people.

The link is here. Just three jokes:

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