This bit of analysis by Anup Roy of Business Standard is interesting.
He shows how the digital payment data which had jumped significantly post demonetisation is beginning to decline. Some people are going back to their choice of usage of cash over digital payments:
RBI started releasing representative data on payment systems on a daily basis since December 2, 2016. This comes after the government had announced the note ban on November 8.
The data capture card transactions of four banks, prepaid instruments from eight non-banks and mobile banking figures from five banks. It is not definitive as all banks are not included, but the data indicate a trend.
However, there was an uptick in other modes of digital payment in January. For example, the Immediate Payment Service (IMPS), used to transfer money in an instant, saw 18 per cent increase in volumes in January. Similarly, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) of the National Payments Corporation of India was seen gaining traction. In November, only 0.3 million transactions happened through UPI. In December, the number of transactions rose to 2 million and in January, it was 4.2 million. The values transacted were Rs 91 crore, Rs 700 crore and Rs 1,666 crore, respectively, said the NPCI data shared with RBI. Value and volume changes in pre-paid instruments, which largely comprise mobile wallets, were flat.
Still early days. This bit of data will be keenly watched.