When a leading Presidential candidate is campaigning from prison: Case of Brazil

Politics and politician’s ambitions never cease to surprise:

It would be hard to overstate the prominence of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil. The founder of the left-wing Workers’ Party, this former union leader – who goes by “Lula” – has dominated Brazilian politics for the last 30 years.

Lula was a top contender in the 1989, 1994 and 1998 elections. He won the presidency in 2002 and was re-elected by a landslide in 2006. Leaving office with an 80 percent approval rating, he helped get his protege Dilma Rousseff elected to succeed him in both 2010 and 2014.

Now Lula is a clear favorite for Brazil’s October 2018 presidential election. There’s just one problem: He’s in jail.

On July 21, 2018, a Brazilian appeals court sentenced the former president to 12 years in prison for corruption – a polarizing and controversial verdict Lula supporters see as a politically motivatedattempt to derail his campaign.

In theory, Lula can still run. Brazil’s “Clean Slate” statute forbids candidates with criminal convictions upheld on appeal to run for office, but conflicting legal interpretations leave some room for doubt. The Superior Electoral Court has not yet vetoed his candidacy.

As Brazilian political scientists, however, we believe Lula’s chances of actually competing in October are slim. With 12 candidates and no front-runner, this is Brazil’s most unpredictable election since it transitioned from dictatorship to democracy in the 1980s.

Phew..