The 2008 crisis: transpacific or transatlantic (savings glut or European Banking glut?)

Nice paper by Robert N McCauley of BIS.

There are two broad hypothesis which are responsible for the 2008 crisis: Savings glut of Asian economies or Banking glut of European economies:

This study analyses two hypotheses that ascribe the 2008 US financial crisis to capital inflows.

The Asian savings glut hypothesis posits that net inflows into high-grade US public bonds from countries running current account surpluses led to the housing boom and bust. An excess of savings over investment abroad led to an excess of US investment over savings.

The European banking glut hypothesis holds that gross inflows into private bonds led to the boom. Leveraging-up by European banks enabled the leveraging-up of US households.

They show the European story fits the data and trends better than Asian story. Hence, more of a European banking problem:

Gross flows from Europe better matched US mortgage market trends towards private credit risk, floating interest rates and narrow spreads. What is more, European banks produced, not just invested in, US mortgage-backed securities. Their US securities affiliates held huge exposures to such securities that deserve recognition. Furthermore, European banks’ leveraging-up also provided credit that enabled housing booms in Ireland and Spain. These findings favour the European banking glut hypothesis.

 

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