Archive for June 11th, 2019

Will the weather Gods smile or frown? Evaluating Monsoon forecasts

June 11, 2019

RBI’s June-2019 Bulletin has this article by Priyanka Bajaj, D. Suganthi, Rishabh Kumar and Atri Mukherjee.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted normal and well distributed South West Monsoon rainfall for 2019, which is at odds with the
forecasts of private and international agencies. This article drills analytically into past patterns of prediction outcome performances of various agencies through multiple statistical measures to evaluate their forecast accuracy.

The comparative assessment suggests that for generating macroeconomic forecasts, the use of IMD’s second stage long range forecast and the predictions of international agencies in conjunction may be appropriate as the preliminary forecasts of IMD and Skymet released in April appear to be noisy.

Good stuff RBI!

Book Review: Cash and Dash – How ATMs and computers changed banking

June 11, 2019

Looks like a fascinating and an important book, given the times we living in.

Prof Scott Burns of Troy University reviews the book on


India’s GDP growth rate overestimated by around 2.5% in 2011-17 period

June 11, 2019

Arvind Subramaniam, former CEA has written this interesting piece in Indian Express which has opened a can of worms.

Based on his research paper, he writes Indian GDP growth rates have been overestimated for the period 2011-12 and 2016-17 by around 2.5%.


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