Will the weather Gods smile or frown? Evaluating Monsoon forecasts

RBI’s June-2019 Bulletin has this article by Priyanka Bajaj, D. Suganthi, Rishabh Kumar and Atri Mukherjee.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted normal and well distributed South West Monsoon rainfall for 2019, which is at odds with the
forecasts of private and international agencies. This article drills analytically into past patterns of prediction outcome performances of various agencies through multiple statistical measures to evaluate their forecast accuracy.

The comparative assessment suggests that for generating macroeconomic forecasts, the use of IMD’s second stage long range forecast and the predictions of international agencies in conjunction may be appropriate as the preliminary forecasts of IMD and Skymet released in April appear to be noisy.

Good stuff RBI!

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