Archive for January 17th, 2020

History of RBI’s Ways and Means Advances to Central Government: Old Wine in New Bottle?

January 17, 2020

Good friend Niranjan pointed to me how WMA was started as a way to bridge the “short-term gap” between Government’s receipts and expenses. This piece tracks the short history of WMA


Cambodia is criminalizing democracy by suppressing opposition

January 17, 2020

RBI update: WMA declines from 130171 cr to 60605 cr..

January 17, 2020

Following from my last article, WMA for the week ended 10-Jan-2020 declined to Rs 60605 cr. It was at a record 130171 cr on the week ended 3-Jan-2020.

WMA on asset side is usually linked with reverse repo (included in Deposits – Others) on liabilities side. This is because as WMA increases, liquidity in the system increases leading to rise in reverse repo. And the opposite happens in case of reversal.

Thus, as WMA has declined on the Assets side, Reverse Repo on the Liabilities side has declined by 93197 cr.  For tracking all the changes exactly, we need a detailed balance sheet which we do not get in WSS.

The puzzle of inflation going up despite low demand in India

January 17, 2020

Prof Himanshu of JNU in this Mint piece:

Why is inflation rising? Most commentators have highlighted the rise in onion prices, which did contribute to vegetable inflation. However, data also shows a sharp rise in inflation in almost all vegetables along with cereals (mainly wheat and coarse cereals), pulses and personal care items. Clearly, the inflation story is not just an onion story, and is far more widespread and serious. However, attributing this to seasonal factors would be missing the forest for the trees. Untimely rains, drought in some regions and crop losses due to local factors did contribute to supply shocks, but this is not enough to explain the sharp rise in overall inflation, or even food inflation, given the small weight of these crops in the consumption basket. Onions, for example, have a weight of only 0.64% in the CPI and 0.16% in the WPI.

Further, the worry is not restricted to vegetable prices—which may stabilize in due course if driven by seasonal factors—but also cereals and pulses, whose inflation rates have seen a consistent rise in the past six months. They together have a weight larger than vegetables, and the rise in their prices is unlikely to be a result of seasonal factors. Some of it may be due to the transmission of global food prices, which have shown a rising trend in the last half year. But a bulk of the blame lies with government policy. In pulses, untimely imports flooded the markets and contributed to lower price realization last year, further leading to lower production this year. Within cereals, wholesale wheat prices have risen 8% this year while retail prices gained 6.3%, the highest in five years.

But why are wheat prices rising if wheat production has been at record levels? Government policy has created an artificial scarcity in the market. In the run-up to the general elections, the government procured 34 million tonnes of wheat in 2019, on top of the 36 million tonnes procured in 2018. These are the highest procurement levels since 2012-13. But it failed to distribute the wheat through the public distribution system, so there just wasn’t enough to go around. As of January, total stocks with Food Corporation of India (FCI) stand at 75 million tonnes, 33 million tonnes of it wheat, and the rest, rice. This implies that almost all the wheat that the FCI procured before the polls is still with it. This is almost a third of the country’s total wheat production. For the record, the buffer norms for FCI prescribe 21.4 million tonnes of stock at the start of each year. The resultant artificial scarcity has not only pushed up wheat prices, but also led to higher demand for coarse grains and fodder, almost all of which have seen double-digit inflation. Fodder prices have risen 14% in the last six months, driving up input costs for non-vegetarian items, which are now seeing high inflation.

Given high government stockpiles, it is unlikely that food inflation will fall soon. This poses problems in reviving the economy. The poor have to bear the brunt of government apathy. With food accounting for two-thirds of their household budgets, higher prices will worsen demand for non-food goods, in addition to proving a serious setback for nutrition security. At a time when consumption expenditure data shows rising poverty along with declining wages, climbing inflation will only lead to increased vulnerability, while making an economic recovery harder.

Problems of plenty and keep compounding..

The evolution of monetary policy frameworks in the post-crisis environment

January 17, 2020

Anna Samarina and Nikos Apokoritis in this voxeu piece:

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