Inflation at risk in advanced and emerging market economies

Ryan Niladri Banerjee, Juan Contreras, Aaron Mehrotra and Fabrizio Zampolli in this BIS research:

We examine how inflation risks have changed over time in a large panel of advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs). Quantile regressions show a general decline in upside inflation risks over time, reflecting successful disinflationary processes and the adoption of inflation targeting regimes. But important non-linearities remain. In advanced economies, the zero lower bound represents a prominent source of downside inflation risk. In EMEs, the exchange rate remains a powerful source of nonlinearity, with large exchange rate depreciations associated with upside inflation risks. Tightening financial conditions increase both up- and downside inflation risks.

 

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