Explainer | Sri Lanka and Pakistan crisis: What can India do?

My new piece in moneycontrol is an explainer on SL and Pakistan crisis and what India can do amidst the crisis.

Creative Destruction? Impact of E-Commerce on the Retail Sector

Sudheer Chava, Alexander Oettl, Manpreet Singh & Linghang Zeng in this NBER paper look at impact of online retail on traditional retail. Is there Schumpeterian creative destruction?

Using an administrative payroll dataset for 2.6 million retail workers, we find that the staggered rollout of a major e-commerce firm’s fulfillment centers reduces traditional retail workers’ income in geographically proximate counties by 2.4%. Wages of hourly workers, especially part-time hourly workers, decrease significantly, driven by a drop in the number of hours worked.

We observe a U-shaped pattern in which both young and old workers experience a sharper decrease in wage income. Consequently, some workers experience an increase in credit card delinquency. Using data for 3.2 million stores, we find that sales (employment) at proximate stores decrease by 4% (2.1%). Exits, especially of young and small stores, increase, and entry decreases.

In aggregate, the retail sector loses 938 jobs per county per quarter, and the transportation-warehousing sector (food services sector) gains 256 (143) jobs. Our results highlight how creative destruction led by e-commerce impacts local labor markets.

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The Roller Coaster Ride of Non-performing Assets in Indian Banking

Rakesh Mohan and Partha Ray provide a sweeping account of NPA crisis in India’s baking system:

This paper narrates the story of the roller coaster ride of non-performing assets (NPA) of the Indian banking sector. Three distinct phases of intertemporal broad trends can be discerned in NPAs of the Indian banking sector. First, since the initiation of financial sector reforms till about the beginning of the North Atlantic Financial Crisis (NAFC), NPAs showed a consistent downward trajectory. Second, during 2008-09 through to 2017-18, they showed a distinct spurt. Third, since 2017-18, NPAs have been on a downward trend till 2019-20, until the economic disruptions caused by Covid 19. In contrast to the popular practice of treating the second phase of rising NPAs as emanating exclusively from governance issues in public sector banks (PSBs), four factors have been identified: (a) falling commodity prices; (b) regulatory forbearance; (c) initial exuberance in infrastructure projects punctured by a downward phase in business cycles (leading to substantial debt accumulation of select big corporates); and (d) governance failure in select PSBs. Moving forward, while the pandemic and some of the associated policy measures could reverse the recent downward trends in NPAs temporarily, more durable policy initiatives like bankruptcy reforms are expected to make significant positive changes in the NPA situation of Indian banks.

How do communication costs affect the production of new ideas and inventions? Case of Uniform Penny Post in 1840

W. Walker Hanlon, Stephan Heblich, Ferdinando Monte & Martin B. Schmitz in this new NBER paper study how lower communication costs leads to development of new ideas:

How do communication costs affect the production of new ideas and inventions? To answer this question, we study the introduction of the Uniform Penny Post in Great Britain in 1840. This reform replaced the previous system of expensive distance-based postage fees with a uniform low rate of one penny for sending letters anywhere in the country. The result was a large spatially-varied reduction in the cost of communicating across locations.

We study the impact of this reform on the production of scientific knowledge using citation links constructed from a leading academic journal, the Philosophical Transactions, and the impact on the development of new technology using patent data.

Our results provide quantitative causal estimates showing how a fall in communication costs can increase the rate at which scientific knowledge is exchanged and new ideas and technologies are developed. This evidence lends direct empirical support to an extensive theoretical literature in economic growth and urban economics positing that more ideas can emerge from communication between individuals.

The new geopolitical map and the Nordic region’s international influence

Stefan Ingves, Governor of Riksbank (Sweden central bank) in this speech looks at the new geopolitical map and absence of Nordic region in global institutions.

Economies in Asia and Latin America have grown in strength in relation to the United States and Europe. Apace with this, they are also expecting to gain greater influence in international economic cooperation, often at the expense of Europe. The emergence of the G20 and the FSB is another illustration of the changing economic power relations in the world. In these groups, the Nordic countries have no, or very little, representation.

For Sweden and Finland to retain their influence in the global economic context, Nordic-Baltic cooperation must be deepened. The Nordic-Baltic region is economically and financially well integrated, with a very advanced position in terms of innovation, and together these countries have the 17th highest GDP in the world. Coordinated action would strengthen their influence in international organisations.

Who killed the phillips curve? A murder mystery

The usual argument for death of Philips curve is sound monetary policy which led to stable inflation expectations.

David Ratner and Jae Sim in this Fed paper provide an alternate explanation- erosion of worker bargaining power:

Is the Phillips curve dead? If so, who killed it? Conventional wisdom has it that the sound monetary policy since the 1980s not only conquered the Great Inflation, but also buried the Phillips curve itself. This paper provides an alternative explanation: labor market policies that have eroded worker bargaining power might have been the source of the demise of the Phillips curve.

We develop what we call the “Kaleckian Phillips curve”, the slope of which is determined by the bargaining power of trade unions.

We show that a nearly 90 percent reduction in inflation volatility is possible even without any changes in monetary policy when the economy transitions from equal shares of power between workers and firms to a new balance in which firms dominate. In addition, we show that the decline of trade union power reduces the share of monopoly rents appropriated by workers, and thus helps explain the secular decline of labor share, and the rise of profit share. We provide time series and cross sectional evidence.

 

From Protectionism to Global Integration: India’s Trade Policy Before and After 1991

Anupam Manur of Takshashila Institute has written a fine essay on India’s industrial policy before and after 1991. The essay is published on https://the1991project.com:

This essay will focus on India’s import policy—the highly restrictive and protectionist tendencies until 1991, the liberalizing reforms, and the effects of the reforms on the Indian economy. Postindependence, the Indian government disfavored free trade and imposed heavy restrictions on imports using tariff and non-tariff barriers while trying to encourage exports using subsidies. The large theme of India’s trade policy during this period was that each instance of trade liberalization and reform was not only backtracked soon after it came into effect but also pulled further back—a case of one step forward and two steps back. For instance, small reductions in import duties was followed by bigger hikes, or any easing of license requirements was followed by stricter requirements in the next period. This was followed by piecemeal and inadequate liberalization in the 1980s.

The year 1991 witnessed a balance-of-payments crisis. The government responded with currency devaluation, relaxation of the import licensing system, and a broad reduction in tariffs. In the years following the reforms, the Indian economy grew at significantly higher rates, the share of trade in India’s GDP increased, and the share of Indian goods and services in global trade increased.

 

Seven trade and finance lessons for future pandemics

Gita Gopinath and Ruchir Sharma in this IMF paper draw seven lessons from current pandemic for future pandemics:

Lesson 1 (Rationale and Source of Financing): Pandemics are a systemic risk issue, not solely a development issue. Donors need to make sizable financing available on a grant basis.

Lesson 2 (Timing of Financing): The time value of action is enormous during pandemics. We need prearranged financing that can be activated up-front on day zero of the pandemic.

Lesson 3 (Scope of Financing): We cannot solve demand challenges by financing supply tools. We need financing for strengthening health systems ahead of the next pandemic.

Lesson 4 (Financing Frameworks): Financing frameworks should explicitly account for downside risks. Moreover, a unified financing framework that identifies complementarities across health agendas will have high multipliers.

Lesson 5 (Research and Development): R&D and knowledge about best practices is a global public good. Scaling up R&D rapidly is possible but requires greater public support.

Lesson 6 (Production): Global supply chains can be subject to significant bottlenecks when supply is scarce and demand is high. Diversify and invest in surveillance of systemic supply chain risks.

Lesson 7 (Cross-Border Flows): Political economy constraints pose serious risks to the free movement of critical goods during pandemics. Regionalizing supply chains can help reduce these risks.

 

General equilibrium models (GEM) with rationing: The making of a ‘European specialty’

Matthieu Renault and Romain Plassard discuss how and why General equilibrium models (GEM) with rationing shaped in Europe:

Europe was where research on general equilibrium models with rationing (GEMR) gained traction. The goal of our article is to explain how and why.

We show that research on GEMR took off and developed in France and Belgium from the mid-1970s before expanding all around Europe. We also show that three factors contributed to the deployment of GEMR across Europe.

First, GEMR opened up new research perspectives in microeconomics, macroeconomics, and econometrics.

Second, leading figures not only advocated for GEMR but also had the institutional resources to stimulate new research. The most well-known example is Drèze, at the Center for Operations Research and Econometrics. Our article also reveals the influence of Pierre-Yves Hénin at Paris I University, Werner Hildenbrand at the University of Bonn, and Jean-Jacques Laffont at Toulouse School of Economics.

Third, there were problems specific to the Old Continent that stimulated the use of GEMR, namely persistent unemployment in Western Europe and planning in Eastern Europe.

 

Entry barriers for banking licence in India are high… very high

The new CII President Sanjiv Bajaj spoke on the need for more bank licences in India and allowing large NBFCs to convert to banks. Around same time RBI rejected 6 applications for bank licences: 4 for universal banks and 2 for small finance banks

My new piece in moneycontrol on the really high entry barriers in Indian banking. Dejure barriers may not be that high, defacto they are….

Costs of retail payments – an overview of recent national studies in Europe

Group of economists in this ECB paper point to social and private costs of transitioning from physical to digital retail payments:

The paper provides an overview of studies on the social and private costs of retail payments conducted since 2013 in nine EU countries and collates the results obtained. Social costs of retail payments are the overall costs resulting from providing payment services to society and deriving from the resource costs incurred by all parties along the payment chain. Private costs, in contrast, are the costs incurred by
the individual stakeholder only, such as banks and other payment intermediaries. Understanding the social and private costs of retail payments is crucial for assessing the impact of the rapidly changing retail payment landscape, such as the shift to electronic payments, and for designing strategies for moving towards cost efficient retail payments.

Despite varying scopes and methodological differences, the analysis reached the following findings: a comparison of results between 2009 and 2016 in Denmark and Italy, between 2015 and 2018 in Poland and between 2009 and 2017 in Portugal, points to decreasing overall social costs for retail payments relative to gross domestic product (GDP). Moreover, the data suggest that changing payment habits – the shift to
electronic payments and in particular debit cards – have an impact on unit costs, which represent the costs per transaction. The unit costs of debit card payments have decreased over time and the gap between the unit costs of cash and those for debit cards has narrowed. This suggests that the increasing number of debit card payments, to which high fixed costs are attached, has led to lower unit costs relative to
those of cash.

The only study on the costs of retail payments in Europe, published as an ECB occasional paper, dates from 2012 and is based on data from 2009.1 Although more recent surveys at national level are available, no single source exists that sheds light on recent information on the costs of retail payments in Europe. Since the national surveys follow different approaches, in terms of both scope and methodology used, for
obtaining the costs of retail payments, the results are not easily comparable with each other across countries.

Economic Planning in India: Did We Throw the Baby Out with the Bathwater?

Ajay Chhibber of George Washington University in this IPPR paper says we need to revisit role of planning and Niti Aayog:

 India has a long and checkered history of planning with some success but many failures. Despite India’s federal structure India’s approach to planning has been top-down with the union government controlling many levers – financial and otherwise to determine the direction of the economy and social programs. India has tried 3 types of planning – “directed planning”, “indicative planning” and now just a “strategy but no planning”.  India needed to replace the Planning Commission but not give up on planning altogether. Just as the rest of the world was going back to a “new planning” surge to handle climate change and the desire to meet the SDGs, India abolished planning altogether. The successor to the planning commission – the Niti Aayog needs to get back to “new planning”, that is now being adopted by many countries with stronger leadership. A legitimised authorising environment and effective use to plan can help India achieve the SDGs by 2030 and become a prosperous country by 2047.

RBI to transfer ₹30,307 crore surplus to government for 2021-22

From RBI’s press release:

The Board in its meeting reviewed the current economic situation, global and domestic challenges and the impact of recent geopolitical developments. The Board also discussed the working of the Reserve Bank during the year April 2021 – March 2022 and approved the Annual Report and accounts of the Reserve Bank for the accounting year 2021-22. The Board approved the transfer of ₹30,307 crore as surplus to the Central Government for the accounting year 2021-22, while deciding to maintain the Contingency Risk Buffer at 5.50%.

Last year the surplus was a whopping Rs 99112 cr. 

More to follow once the annual report is released..

Monetary policy and inflation in times of war (and How Eli Heckscher caused a bank run at the Riksbank in 1920)

Riksbank Deputy Governor Henry Ohlsson in this speech discusses inflation in Sweden in 4 wars: WWI, WWII, Korean War in 1960s and Middle East War in 1970s.

Inflation rose in all the four wars but overall outcomes etc were different:

“When major and unusual events such as the war in Ukraine occur, there is no ‘manual’ for how to act as an economic policy decision-maker. All wars are different – in terms of their scale and duration, their location and their impact on the world around them.”

This is how Henry Ohlsson began his speech at Uppsala University, where he described what research literature has to say about the connection between war and inflation. He also looked back at earlier episodes of war being associated with rising inflation in Sweden.

He highlighted four episodes: the First World War, the Second World War and the Korean War, and, starting in the mid-70s, a more prolonged episode of war in the Middle East. The first three wars were marked by a more short-term inflation, while inflation became more persistently high during the latter period, largely because economic policy became too expansionary.

What about inflation today:

Henry Ohlsson said that Sweden now has better conditions for coping with the balancing act that rising inflation entails for monetary policy, compared with when inflation began to rise in the 1970s. He highlighted three factors behind this: the inflation target, the wage-formation model and the fact that today there is a more robust fiscal policy framework in place.

So what can we learn from history with regard to our current situation? asked Mr Ohlsson. During many of the periods of high inflation in connection with war, the effects of monetary policy have been heavily dependent on the expectations of companies and households regarding future economic developments.

“The price increases we have seen in recent months are not something that monetary policy can affect. But the high inflation risks setting off a spiral of price increases, wage drift, price increases, wage drift and so on. It is essential to ward off these tendencies in time. It was therefore time to change the direction of monetary policy and start raising the repo rate” concluded Mr Ohlsson.

Ohlsson also discusses this interesting economic history episode in Sweden related to Eli Heckscher. The eminent economist of Heckscher-Ohline mode caused a run on the central bank in 1920s:

An interesting, but perhaps not so well-known, event during this period was that Eli Heckscher, professor at the Stockholm School of Economics and internationally renowned economist, actually caused a bank run at the Riksbank in 1920.  Although the inflation peak had passed, inflation at the beginning of 1920 was still so high that Heckscher thought that the Riksbank should raise the discount rate significantly. When the Riksbank did not want to do this, Heckscher decided to do something about it.

The right to exchange notes for gold had ceased in connection with the outbreak of the war in 1914, but was reintroduced in 1916. However, since an export ban on gold had been introduced in 1914, this did not mean in practice that the gold standard had been re-established. The export ban allowed the gold price to differ between countries and the value of the krona to change against other currencies. This was also the case as the krona depreciated against the dollar.

At the US Federal Reserve, the price of one kilogram of gold in the depreciated Swedish currency was SEK 3,600 at the beginning of 1920. At the Riksbank, the price of one kilo of gold was instead SEK 2,480. If the export ban were to be lifted, then a considerable arbitrage gain could be made.

Heckscher decided to draw the general public’s attention to this fact and did so through an article entitled “The new price revolution” (Den nya prisrevolutionen), published in the daily newspaper Stockholms Dagblad on 11 March 1920. The article was more or less an explicit encouragement to readers to withdraw their money from the bank and go to the Riksbank to redeem it for gold: “Anyone who brings SEK 1,000 in banknotes to the Riksbank has the legal right to receive 50 SEK 20 [gold coins] and these currently have a value of SEK 1,450 – 45%
profit on the most risk-free of investments”

The final results were indeed an onslaught of people who wanted to redeem their banknotes at the Riksbank, who were therefore forced to raise the discount rate in order to defend the gold reserve. In connection with this, the Riksbank requested release from the obligation to redeem banknotes for gold, which was subsequently also granted.

Hmm..

Prof JR Varma on RBI’s May-2022 meeting

Ever since RBI increased policy repo rate by 40 bps in May which was a meeting outside of MPC calendar, two questions have been asked:

1. Why increase policy rates in May when you did not increase policy rates in April?
2. How come a  consensus on 40 bps?

The RBI released the minutes of the meeting in which MPC member Prof JR Varma answers both the questions.

36. MPC meetings outside the annual calendar are at the sole discretion of the Governor based on his opinion that an additional meeting is required. Therefore, I confine my statement to the consideration of the action to be taken at this additional meeting.

37. In my statement in April, I stated that the principal reason for not taking immediate action on the policy rate at that time was that the forward guidance given in the February meeting effectively precluded such action. I also stated that the withdrawal of the forward guidance and the absence of any stance in April meant that in future meetings, the MPC would consider itself completely free to take any action on the policy rates that may be warranted. This meeting is taking place almost a month after the April meeting, and the MPC is now at liberty to consider the rate increase that it could have done in April itself in the absence of the February forward guidance.

38. Since April, inflation risks have become more pronounced both in terms of magnitude and in terms of persistence. On the other hand, the growth shock appears to be less severe than I feared initially, as most nowcast estimates suggest that the economy is coping reasonably well with the geopolitical tensions and the Chinese lockdown. In this context, the need for monetary tightening has become much more acute. Moreover, there is a lot of catching up to do because the MPC (a) rightly prioritized economic recovery at the height of the pandemic in 2020 and early 2021, and (b) delayed the normalization by continuing the forward guidance for far too long after the pandemic abated. This means that it is now imperative to front-load the rate action to the extent possible.

39. It appears to me that more than 100 basis points of rate increases needs to be carried out very soon. My preference therefore is for a 50 basis points increase in the repo rate in this meeting. The majority of the MPC is in favour of 40 basis points for reasons which are not very clear to me. Whatever symbolic or psychological benefit there may be from keeping the hike below 50 basis points is outweighed by the simplicity and clarity of moving in round multiples of 25 basis points. Also reducing the hike by 10 basis points now would require an extra 10 basis point hike at some point (and perhaps sooner rather than later). Nevertheless, I have thought it fit not to dissent on this issue as the optimal rate hike is not something that can be calculated with mathematical precision, and 40 basis points is not materially different from 50 basis points. I am thankful to the majority for not making my decision more difficult by choosing a 37.5 basis point hike (exactly mid-way between 25 and 50). In view of all this, I vote in favour of increasing the policy repo rate to 4.40 per cent.

40. The second resolution is identical to that in April, and my arguments in favour of this decision at that time remain valid. Monetary policy remains extremely accommodative despite the 40 basis point hike in this meeting. In fact, if the real policy rate is measured by subtracting the latest inflation print from the nominal rate, then the real policy rate after this meeting is lower than it was after the April meeting because the published headline CPI inflation has risen by much more than 40 basis points between the two meetings. Of course, it is more reasonable to calculate the real policy rate by subtracting the forecast inflation rate 3-4 quarters ahead, but even if one does that, it is obvious that the real policy rate continues to be sharply negative, and therefore highly accommodative. The first part of the second resolution is therefore simply a statement of fact, and the operative portion of the resolution is the second part which talks about withdrawal of accommodation. I have already explained why an expeditious withdrawal of accommodation is warranted.

41. However, most of the analyst commentary on the April meeting seemed to interpret the phrase “remain accommodative” as a stance despite the conscious decision to drop the word “stance”. I hope that this time around, the MPC’s intent will be more clearly understood, but if that does not happen, the MPC must consider rephrasing this resolution. It would not be wise for the MPC to persist with language that is pedantically correct, but falls short in communicative efficacy. But such rephrasing is a matter for a future meeting, and this time around, I vote in favour of the decision to remain accommodative while focusing on withdrawal of accommodation to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward, while supporting growth.

AS frank as it can get..

Dutch National Bank’s history is closely intertwined with slavery: Central Bank starts a process of reflection

Missed this Feb-22 news development. DNB history is closely intertwined with slavery:

As DNB’s Executive Board, we realised some time ago that we needed to gain a more objective understanding of DNB’s links to slavery. This was triggered by the growing historical awareness about slavery and the ongoing fight against racism in society,  combined with a desire from within our own organisation to gain a better insight into this matter. We do not wish to ignore this part of our own history, which is linked to the Netherlands’ history of slavery. This is why we decided to commission an independent historical study, which was conducted by Leiden University’s Karwan Fatah-Black, Lauren Lauret and Joris van den Tol.

The study shows that DNB was involved in three ways.

1. 1. Part of DNB’s start-up capital came from business owners with direct interests in plantation slavery in the Atlantic region, for example in Suriname. Of the 16 initial major capital providers, 11 have now been linked to slavery.

1. 2. As an institution, DNB was indirectly involved in Dutch colonial slavery and slavery in non-Dutch areas, such as British Guiana. Having no branches in the colonies, it did not play a role in the day-to-day slavery-related financial transactions there. However, DNB did support the Ministry of Colonies in its day-to-day payment transfers and provided services to trading houses involved in slavery.

1. 3. To a greater extent than their contemporaries, several prominent DNB officials were personally involved in colonial slavery. Several of them had direct links with slavery-related businesses and some were also involved in the management of plantations. A number of prominent DNB officials organised themselves to represent the interests of slave owners in the political arena. Only one or two were involved in organisations working to abolish slavery.

Central bank reflecting:

Our first step is to disclose and acknowledge our links to slavery. We believe it is important that everyone in the Netherlands and everyone in the Caribbean and Suriname has access to the study through our website. The facts that emerged from the study and the deeply racist beliefs that underlie them affect us deeply. DNB as it is in 2022 does not wish to disregard its past. The suffering of the enslaved people in the past is indescribable. DNB’s Executive Board deeply regrets this. While we cannot undo the suffering that has been caused, we can, as DNB, try to contribute to healing by making this history visible, and by acknowledging the facts and the suffering they have caused.

Secondly, we will soon be talking to our employees and representatives of civil society organisations, in particular with those who are especially affected by this history and the impact it has to this day. To this end, an external focus group will be set up, to be headed by Freek Ossel, former alderman of Amsterdam, former mayor of two municipalities including Beverwijk, and chairperson of the Steering Group for the National Transatlantic Museum of Slavery.

The study is here.

‘People should be more aware’: the business dynasties who benefited from Nazis

A new book has been released which looks at some companies which benefited from Nazi connections.

TheGuardian profiles the book and the author:

Colonial and Confederate statues toppled. Looted objects returned by contrite museums. Tainted family names such as Sackler expunged from buildings. A worldwide reckoning with the past crimes of great powers is under way. But is there a glaring omission?

A new book, Nazi Billionaires, investigates how Germany’s richest business dynasties made fortunes by aiding and abetting Adolf Hitler’s Third Reich. It also examines how, eight decades later, they still escape close scrutiny and a nation that has done so much to confront its catastrophic past still suffers a very particular blind spot.

“What struck me was this is a country that’s so cognisant of its history in many ways but seemingly the most economically powerful actors do not engage with that,” says author David de Jong, a 35-year-old Dutchman. “That was the reason why I wrote the book. It’s an argument in favour of historical transparency.”

The former reporter for Bloomberg News examines German companies that own beer brewers and wine producers as well as famous US brands such as Krispy Kreme and Pret A Manger. But he casts an especially harsh light on car makers led by household names such as BMW and Porsche, which powered the postwar economic miracle and contribute about a 10th of the nation’s gross domestic product.

 

Irrigation Management for Sustainable Agriculture

Rishabh Kumar, Jobin Sebastian and Arun Vishnu Kumar in RBI’s May-22 Bulletin analyse irrigation in 19 States:

In the backdrop of recurrent episodes of drought and declining ground water table, ensuring irrigation efficiency is of paramount importance for sustainable agriculture. This article analyses the trends in the area-weighted cost and efficiency of irrigation across 19 agriculturally important Indian states using the Comprehensive Cost of Cultivation data published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, Government of India for the period from 2002-03 to 2017-18.

Highlights:

• • The area-weighted cost of irrigation declined during the study period perhaps reflecting the impact of increased access to subsidised power in most of the states. However, the costs are still high in some states.
  • The estimated technical efficiency of irrigation suggests that majority of the states lie far from the efficiency frontier and have also recorded declining trends over the study period.
  • The inefficiency appears to be driven by the energy consumption in the farm sector and ground water accessibility.
  • The findings call for policy focus on energy and water efficient irrigation technologies, particularly in states where irrigation efficiency is declining.

How Economics Found Science …and Lost its Subject Matter

Nicholas Gruen in this INET article questions the often quoted trade off between efficiency and equality by economics:

My point has simply been to show one theoretical framing of the relationship between efficiency and equality that proceeds from careful, critical observation of and abstraction from reality. If this is well-judged, our understanding of reality improves as do our prospects of improving it. The textbook approach couldn’t be more different. Turns out that it is metaphysical fairy-floss. The “efficiency-equality” trade-off exists as a particular case of the general one that if you wish to achieve one thing, doing something else could get in your way. That applies whether the things in question are apples, oranges, efficiency, spelling prowess, bananas, Nobel Prizes, stop signs, or fortune cookies. Oh — I nearly forgot — and equality. Who knew?

Disciplines like economics can be worse than useless without proper attention to what Mary Midgely called their ‘philosophical plumbing’ — the way their organizing ideas are brought into relation to get us closer to reality — like the philosophical plumbing I’ve offered in this essay. Without it, the ideas and techniques economists use are unmoored from any wider accountability for actually helping us understand the world. Yet that kind of close-grained reflectiveness about the way ideas are used in situ is completely absent, both from learned journal literature and from the core economics curriculum. (Indeed, in my experience, it barely makes its way into the “philosophy/methodology of economics” literature and pedagogy preoccupied as they have been with various more ponderous set pieces — for instance, Popper’s falsificationism and Milton Friedman’s call to judge theory by the quality of its predictions rather than the realism of its assumptions).

Finally, note how frequently the kind of thinking I’ve been critiquing in this essay perpetrates the fallacy of the excluded middle — and how much damage this has done to the fabric of economic and political debate, and therefore to our economy and polity. Thus, Friedrich Hayek compellingly demonstrated the impracticability of managing a complex economy entirely from the center. But he took this demonstration of the impracticality of one extreme to justify a lurch towards the other and the general principle that less government was in principle preferable to more. This piece of motivated impatience in going from arguments to practical conclusions — so typical of intellectuals — was a spectacular non-sequitur from which many economists have still not freed themselves and from which the world has still not recovered.

 

NSDL@25: Ushering India’s stock market through the digital era for 25 years

National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) recently celebrated its 25th anniversary.

My article in Moneycontrol on how this organisation silently paved way for digitalisation of equity markets.