Indian economy @75

RBI DG Michael Patra in this speech takes one through 75 years of Indian economy:

I am deeply honoured to be invited to deliver this address as part of the celebration of the 75th year of our Independence. I thank Dr. Panda for inviting me and more than that, for the innovative drive and gracious hospitality – he and his team – which has made this event possible. At this defining moment, the elixir of energy, inspiration, new ideas and pledges awakens us to a bright and self-reliant future, marked by the fulfilment of our dreams. In many ways, Bhubaneshwar is the embodiment of this Mahotsav – a rich and glorious heritage; a happening present; and a smart city of the future – in every respect, Tribhuvan.

While my talk will attempt to kaleidoscope India’s journey through the last 75 years, the focus is on the future – India in the next 10-50 years.

It is said that there is nothing more powerful than an idea whose time has come2. I do believe with the all the strength of my conviction that India’s time has come. As the famous song marking the UN’s International Day of Peace goes3, you may say I am a dreamer, but I hope that after my talk, I will not be the only one. You too will dream with me, and the world will be as one. So, I invite you to join me in this journey of dreams as India takes off to make a tryst with destiny.

The speech has many graphs and charts which make it interesting.

In the end, Patra says Indian economy to be second largest by 2031:

If India capitalises on its opportunities and overcomes the challenges that I have addressed in the time available for this talk, it is widely believed that India will bend time. So, revisiting the purchasing power parity projections I alluded to earlier, it is possible to imagine India striking out into the next decade with a growth rate of 11 per cent. If this is achieved, India will become the second largest economy in the world not by 2048 as shown earlier, but by 2031. Even if it does not sustain this pace and slows to 4-5 per cent in 2040-50, it will become the largest economy of the world by 2060.

As I said in my opening remarks, you may think that I am a dreamer, but let me remind you that while history does not repeat itself, it often rhymes. The distinguished British economist, Angus Maddison, who specialised in the measurement and analysis of economic growth and development, has documented economic performance over long periods of time and across major countries in every continent of the world. According to his work, India was the largest economy of the world with the highest share in world GDP during 1 to 1000 AD. Over the next 600 years, India intermittently fell to the second position, but reclaimed the position of the world’s largest economy by 1700 AD with a share of 24.4 per cent of world GDP. Since then, there has been an inexorable loss of share. Ladies and gentlemen, the time has come to halt the decline, reverse it and repossess our rightful place on the world’s stage.

 

 

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