Assorted links

There are a couple of interesting links :

• Tyler Cowen suggests Fed should adopt a inflation target of 3% which will then help in faster recovery of US economy. Once Fed says it will keep expanding money supply till inflation reaches 3%, then people might just begin spending rather than just hoard.
• Krugman says US should not bother if China keepinstops buying US Treasuries
• Shiller says knowing economic history and behavioral economics is important to understand crises
• Jeff Frankel looks at main questions asked from NBER as it said recession ended in June 2009.
• Economists debate whether the recession has ended? Superb stuff this with most saying we are still stuck in recessionary conditions

 

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The Budgetary Impact of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Here is an interesting CBO short note on the topic. It also explains the various mehthodologies used by CBO to estimate the impact.

Other useful speeches:

• Fiscal Policy Choices in Uncertain Times an interesting speech by CBO Director Doug Elmendorf
• Monetary policy after the financial crisis, speech by Lars Svensson
• Bundesbank Lecture 2010: The Economic Consequences of the Reforms” by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada
• “Restoring Faith in the International Monetary System” by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of Canada
• The Development of Asia: Risk and Returns for Australia by Philip Lowe, Assistant Governor (Economic), Reserve Bank of Australia

Assorted Links

Twoi vistors to this blog have sent these links:

Rakhi Gupta sends these two links:

Recently RBI has released Annual Report for 2009-10. This document provides inner insights in simple and summarised way. http://rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=23033

Also there has been press release of Foreign Trade Policy (2009-14). Again a great document, must read. It is available at –
http://www.ieport.com/foreign_trade_policy_2009-2014/Foreign_Trade_policy_2009-2014.htm

Dipesh sends this article on sovereign debt crisis:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/34065840/GMO-Reflections-on-the-Sovereign-Debt-Crisis

Thanks to both of them for sending the links

Assorted Links

• Nachiket Mor and Bind Ananth of IFMR say Don’t like the SKS valuation? Compete, don’t complain. Well, this was all on expected lines. People will criticise if so much money being made out of a social cause. Even companies which are for there for pure business cause and people find crazy monies being made, are criticised as well. And here we have a model which works on providing loans to poor people. What else do you expect if not criticism? Going by the historical experience, I think the microfinance hype might lead to trouble in future.
• A review of Fault Lines, by Viral Acharya
• IFMR lauches the Microfinance Researchers Alliance Program
• Gulzar on lessons from the German recovery. Also see this The case against austerity gets stronger
• WSJ Blog points to this interesting story on how Fed’s easy policies are creating problems in Hong Kong –Hong Kong Forced to Fight Fed Again
• Ezra Klein on Elizabeth Warren
• Understand how markets fell in this crisis via a movie

Assorted Links

• Should US brace for deflation. Here is a NYT debate between several economists. (HT: Tyler Cowen)
• IFMR Blog on ‘For-Profit’ companies as Business Correspondents?
• Krugman on The Price Stability Trap
• WSJ Blog points Dallas Fed Research Questions Stimulus
• Stephen Gordon on Canada’s exit strategy
• John Taylor asks Where Are We Now, Three Years After the Onset of the Crsis?
• Mankiw points to a challenge to extreme Keynesian
• Blattman points The future of development economics
• Klein points to list of probable economists for CEA chair as Romer goes
• A Stock-Take on African Public Financial Management
• Menze Chinn on Persistent Large Output Gaps, Disinflation and Deflation

Assorted Links

• IFMR Blog points Meet our Wealth Managers from Sasan Ambagaon
• TTR points IIT Kharagpur had quotas for faculty’s children! I somehow missed this news item
• Krugman has two interesting posts on Rogoff-Reinhart paper on debt dynamics – Reinhart And Rogoff Are Confusing Me, Debt In The 30s (this one is real good on how important it is to look at both absolute number (total debt) and relative number (debt as % of GDP)). Ezra Klein comments
•  Krugman says Fed needs an inflation target. Also see his post on Geography And China’s Surplus
• WSJ Blog points A View from Japan on Fed’s Latest Move. How things never really change
• Nudges blog points – even Nazis nudged
• Negative real TIPs yields
• Hamilton on Fed’s recent monetary policy

Assorted Links

• The FOMC maintains its rates. One highlight is that certain mortgage backed securities held by Fed are maturing. Fed will use this money to buy Treasury Bonds. So, Fed balance sheet will not shrink. NY Fed has released the guidelines for this reallocation
  • Krugman responds
  • WSJ Blog points to Economists React: Fed Takes the ‘Middle Road’ . It also parses the Fed statement
  • Ezra Klein post
• How far behavioral economics has come, and how far it still has to go, part II
•  Indian government calls H1B visa fee hike discriminatory
• Ezra Klein has a superb post on When does the Laffer curve bend?
• Ajay Shah is back to his criticism of RBI. Well, it all sounded good before the crisis (not to this blog even then). Not now. The papers he points are just a one sided view. There are so many papers questioning the monetary policy framework. It requires something to make a statement like this after seeing and reading so much about issues with economics:

We continue to be in a situation where RBI’s thinking on monetary policy is quaint and out of touch with world class knowledge of economics.

Assorted Links

• Ajay Shah points to three upcoming research meetings
• Kirti Rao writes on IFMR Blog about the need for microfinance/social cause firms to adopt- Social Performance Reporting. Read the interesting comments by Bindu Anant and Nachiket Mor at the end.
• JRV talks about  how cental bankers are criticising/discussing decisions made in monetary policy meetings.
• Gulzar as always has a superb post on “Big push” theory of development
• Krugman points how Bernanke’s analysis of Japan in 1990s could be replaced with Fed/US now. It is like a thriller really.
• WSJ Blog points to a new paper that says odds of recession are rising. Chinn posts about the paper as well
• Chinn updates inflation indicators and asks from disinflation to deflation? Well deflation hasn’t come yet, but rapid inflation should be the last thing to worry about.
• Rodrik’s new article – The Myth of Authoritarian Growth
• PFM BLog points IMF East AFRITAC is urgently seeking a PFM Advisor
• PSD Blog points to new criticism on random control trials. A tool should remain a toll. The US economists
• All links at Economix Blog are real good.

Assorted Links

• July -2010 unemployment report card continues to show a grim picture. The unemp rate was 9.5%. It is now being called as Great Stall amidst economists. Who invented the term –  Steve Blitz of Majestic Research. Gulzar responds; WSJ Blog points to econ’s reaction; IFMR Blog points to a new report on using postal offices for financial inclusion
• Gulzar posts about storing solar power via molten salts. Earlier solar power plants remained idle after sunsets. Now because of innovations, a solar power plant can continue to produce energy 8 hrs after sunset. Though there are huge challenges to be overcome before it becomes commercial.
• TGS on India’s inflation and growth speed limit
• Krugman says we need Peter Diamond as Fed Governor.
• WSJ Blog points Raghuram Rajan on India’s ‘Fault Lines’
• There ia another vigorous debate happening. It is with respect to Congressman Paul Ryan’s plan to consolidate US public finances . Krugman has been criticising it bug time. Taylor on The Ryan Roadmap versus the Road to Ruin; Mankiw points to a few more links
• Hamilton summarises the US economy. It doesn’t look good at all
• PFM BLog on Evaluation of Government Performance and Public Policies in Spain

Assorted Links

• Cowen points Christina Romer to step down from CEA and Peter Diamond not confirmed as Fed Governor. Also see this funny article on economic forecasting
• Bush had passed certain tax cuts in his time. They are set to expire next year. There is a debate on whether  they should continue. Krugman says let the tax cuts go and instead increase public spending. Unfortunately, that’s not going to happen. Given the political realities, he suggests go for a temporary extension of the lower-end cuts, and just letting the upper-end cuts expire.
• Harvard’s Gita Gopinath remmebers her Phd thesis adviser- Bernanke
• Today a very crucial data is to e released – US unemployment rate for July 2010. Markets expect non farm payrolls to be at -ve 65,000 and unemp rate at 9.6% , higher than 9.5% in June. Anything higher or lower will lead to corresponding market movements. Economix points what to expect in the report

Assorted Links

• Ajay Shah points to interesting stock of papers from the NIPFP Macro/Finance Group
• Krugman points where he sources his data from; Also this superbly titled post Give Me Your Tired, Your Poor, Your Hungary 🙂
• Research on Bigger Yuan Revaluation Would Have Sizeable Effect
• Mankiw points to Ken Rogoff article where he says US should focus on productivity and aggregate supply, not just aggregate demand.

Assorted Links

• Cowen looks at a question I have always wondered about – Why does anyone support private macroeconomic forecasts? Macroblog reflects on the issue as well
• Krugman on Texan unemployment problems
• WSJ Blog says Second-Quarter Slowdown Likely Worse Than First Thought; Also read this  Economists Call for Clarity on Government Policy
• Simon van Norden reacts to Krugman’s post criticising Dallas Fed chief– Richard Fisher
• Ajay Shah on learning about inflation from a basket of eggs
• PSAD Blog points to research on impact of reforms in business entry
• Gulzar on importance of kindergarten education
• Economix blog points to research showing decision of many mothers to work during the first year of their children’s lives is not such a bad thing after all
• Ed Glaesar points to his recent research which looks at factors for rise in house prices. Low interest rates were a factor but not the only one

Assorted Links

• US economy grewt by 2.4% in Q2 2010. Christina Romer responds. Fed’s forecasts now look too rosy. Hamilton analyses
• Gulzar on Basel III; Impact of ARRA and TARP
• Krugman on Japanese monetary policy to fight deflation; Also this Comparative Disinflations
• WSJ Blog points to Greenspan comments calling the current situation a ‘Quasi-Recession’

Assorted Links

• IFMR Blog points to its new financing product
• Gulzar summaries several issues on  this topic Labor market in the Great Recession
• Cowen asks which country has the largest ramp-up fiscal stimulus? It is Saudi Arabia. Though Saudi is also pretty lowly placed on fiscal transparency.
• Krugman compares Raghu Rajan’s recent article with Schumpeter’s in Great Depression
• Nudges on How McDonald’s uses automatic enrollment
• WSJ Blog points to a new paper from James Bullard of St Louis Fed. He said if US were to slid into Japan style deflation trap, Fed should shift away from interest rate policy and instead focus on “quantitative easing” measures. This would boost inflation expectations if inflation shows signs of ticking lower.
• John Taylor reflects on the new Blinder-Zandi Working Paper on the Crisis.
• Chinn points last decade warmest on record

Assorted Links

• IFMR Blog points to Buisiness correspondent model in Brazil
• Gulzar on Explaining India’s inflation story
• Krugman points US Economy is Number One in economic outlook, on the negative side though
• WSJ Blog points to a new paper which says Words, Not Deeds, Are Central Bank’s Main Power
• MAcroblog says The money-inflation connection: It’s baaaack!
• Chinn points to a new conference on China
• Fame-French answer this q- Are Treasury Bonds Risk-Free? Barring TIPS, treasury bonds suffer from inflation risk. Even TIPS suffer from real return risk.
• Economix Blog on Europe’s Two-Speed Economy: North Vs. South

Assorted Links

• Cowen has 2 superb posts- first discusses how we should be looking at impact of fiscal policy. He says there are two ways to look at fiscal policy impact. One the overall govt expenditure which is stable throughout the year and two the sudden increase which is labelled as stimulus. What is important is that you look at both and not just the second category. Countries like Germany etc have a higher overall expenditure and therefor automatic stabilizers are larger. Second post is on why Cowen has been wrong on Europe?
• Krugman on <!– — Updated: 4:42 pm –>Permanently High Unemployment
• WSJ Blog points to some interesting papers –  Economists Try to Measure Uncertainty’s Impact on Growth, Credit Cards Take From Poor, Give to the Rich, Note to China: Economic Reform Doesn’t Produce Democracy
• Paul Romer Podcast with Paul Kedrosky
• PSD Blog on Would Ulysses have taken out a microfinance loan?
• Economix points to a new report estimating impact of fiscal stimulus

Assorted Links

• IFMR Blog on Financial inclusion: Understand your customer
• Gulzar summarises US financial market reforms. Also see US economic situation in graphics. He also has an excellent post on US inflation scenario
• Cowen says 90% debt-gdp ratio is not a worry? On Europe bank stress tests
• He points to profile of Al Roth. It is a very good read. What a sharp economist.
• Krugamn points Keynes In Asia. Asian policymakers stimulated aggressively in this crisis taking forward lessons from SE Asian crisis.
• Nudges blog points Richard Thaler article on soccer lessons for financial regulators.Refree mistake in England Vs Germany match has got responses from everybody
• Mankiw on economics jargons
• Economix on Big Mac Index- Remininbi undervalued by 48%. Euro and Brazil Real overvalued…

Assorted Links

• Gulzar points to new paper on default savings options
• Cowen points to a new blog by MIT Professor Erik Brynjolfsson
• Rogoff is the latest economist to say don’t rush for any fiscal push right now. Krugman on Rogoff’s recent article. He doesn’t spare anyone. He might be taking on JohnTaylor very soon who has been saying cutting national debt = stimulus
• Krugman also builds a Fedfail Index. Needless to say the index is very high meaning Fed is failing big time
• WSJ Blog points how Avinash Dixit’s new paper came from a sitcom. Amazing really
• Casey Mulligan compares deflation in great depression vs today

Assorted Links

• Krugman points (see this as well) to government debt in great depression. There is a lot of confusion over this ongoing fiscal austerity debate. Though Hoover followed fiscal austerity, debt  situation actually worsened under Hoover more than FDR.
• WSJ Blog points Double Dip? Seven Reasons Why Not. Meanwhile, Americans Remain Wary of Stock Market
• Nudge Blog answers the critiques of behavioral economics which surfaced after this NYT article.
• Stephen Gordon looks at probability of double dip recession
• IMF economists suggested central banks to higher their inflation targets. A group of economists looks at the idea and say welfare loss from high inflation targets is non-trivial
• Jose Vinals, head IMF financial markets on A Marriage Made in Heaven or Hell: Monetary and Financial Stability
• PFM Blog has a superb post on Implementing a Financial Management Information System in Afghanistan
• Economix Blog points to a new paper which looks at how children acquire skills. Econs never fail to surprise with their penchant for research
• ECB economists on why fiscal austerity is needed
• Gulzar on the need for labor market flexibility
• Cowen asks whether any director has a worse career trajectory than M. Night Shyamalan?

Assorted Links

• WSJ Blog points Some economists say bring inflation on
• Krugman on inflation expectaions which have again moved down. He takes on Tyler Cowen who revisits Germany policies during reunification
• John Taylor points New Data Show the Debt Problem Is Spending (not Taxes) and Obamacare Worsens the Problem
• Ezra Klein is worried that Liz Warren might be ignored for the consumer financial protection bureau
• PSD Blog points to Lego theory of development