Archive for the ‘Central Banks / Monetary Policy’ Category

Why is currency in circulation in India rising?

April 4, 2016

There were flurry of articles towards end of India’s financial year on this murky term – currency in circulation. All these articles (article one , two and three)were looking at possible reasons for sharp rise of currency in circulation.

The question is why should anyone care? Well, one sees this circulation rising in times of high inflation as people need more money to settle transactions. But with declining inflation, one should not see a rise in the currency numbers.

First what is this Currency in circulation? This is basically all the paper notes we carry in our pockets. This along with rupee coins and small coins with RBI form currency in circulation. Rupee coins and small coins in the balance sheet of the Reserve Bank of India include ten-rupee coins issued since October 1969, two rupee-coins issued since November 1982 and five rupee coins issued since November 1985.

Next, what is the problem? See this table:

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What if we all use Bitcoins ? Some Lessons from the Gold Standard

April 1, 2016

An interesting paper by Warren Weber of Bank of Canada.

It looks at what if this happens in future and then draws lessons from history! So say we all move to Bitvoins. What will it look like? Will it last? One could draw lessons from Gold Standard:

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How to rob a central bank? Case of Bangladesh…

March 21, 2016

I did read this news last week but forgot to blog about it. Bloomberg edit team uses the case as a warning to all central bankers who can know more ignore cyber threats at their end. So far hackers were limited to banks but now have moved to central banks as well. Willie Sulton, the bank robber was once asked  why he robbed a bank? TO which his answer was “that is where the money is”. Likewise, why just stop at a bank. Get to the creator of money which is the central bank.

What was this Bangladesh story? Few people managed to hack their system and get funds transferred to remote accounts elsewhere.  It is just an amazing case of heist in digital space. As this blog keeps mentioning, banking is increasingly becoming a sub-sector of information technology. A bank is no more just about loans and deposits but equally about encryption and softwares. Soon, latter will take over former in terms of importance given how systems are getting integrated. This blog will not be surprised if we go onto see technology people heading and managing a bank.

 

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Photography at the Bank of England…

March 18, 2016

This is a good and rare time to be a history buff. Most central banks are digging deeper and deeper into its history as present is so messed up.

So there was an exhibition at the Bank of England Museum which sheds light on different aspects of the organisation’s history through photographs.

There is an article by Bryony Leventhall and Anna Spend on the exhibition. And here is a series of pictures from the event.

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Behind the mysteries of the Federal Reserve

March 18, 2016

The kind of attention Federal Reserve gets worldwide one would imagine that this is one institution which must be having broad approval from US people and polity. Ironically, it is actually just the opposite.

Unlike most parts of the world where discussion on central banks is just about their rate moves, in US one finds equal number of discussions on origins and relevance of Fed. This has gained steam after the crisis and lots of stuff is being written looking at historical basis of Fed.

One such recent book is by Prof Peter Conti-Brown, a professor of legal studies and business ethics at Wharton. Here is his interview where he makes several food for thought points:

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Federal Reserve’s Statistical Releases: a Publications History

March 17, 2016

This paper by Sian L. Seldin  is quite a surprising one.

One would imagine it would explain how various Fed’s stats publications have changed overtime. This it does but keeps explanation to a minimum. All it does is list the various publications overtime. In the end there are appendices which stitch the story together.

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System has published extensive statistical information on the U.S. economy and banking industry since 1914. This information has been published in various formats, usually referred to as “statistical releases.” Titles and release numbers of the publications have changed frequently. Federal Reserve Board Statistical Releases: a Publications History describes these changes; it is a convenient tool that lightens the burden of tracing the titles and release numbers by providing history in a single location.

A paper with no references whatsoever..

Reimagining money and banks: What if both were designed to build trust instead of wealth?

March 9, 2016

This is an interesting article which helps you think differently on role of money and banking in a society. Both money and banks are seen as wealth creators and we want more and more of both. However, this is not how both began to emerge. The idea for money and banks was to help communities and foster local commerce.

Interestingly, we are seeing some experiments which take us to the original roles of money and banks:

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Time for Helicopter Money?

March 4, 2016

As if so much central bank activism was not enough, Kemal Dravis says they can still do a lot more. Time for the helicopter drop:

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Should Fed have an international goal too?

March 3, 2016

Andres Velasco says Fed should take onus of its global role and act accordingly.

In times when Fed is struggling to manage its domestic role, should it add international goals too?

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Understanding the US Treasury and Federal Reserve’s con game

March 2, 2016

Dan Sanchez of Mises Institute has this scathing post on the topic. It is on US Treasury/Fed but applies to most economies across the world.

Actually keeping all insights from Austrian school away from teaching, we all succumb to the noise around central bank independence. We don’t even question what is this independence when both the Treasury and central banks are part of the same setup. The independence bit looks like just a cover up act so that people don’t question the overall monetary operations which move from one govt dept to another seamlessly…

Municipalities and neighborhoods establish local currencies to invigorate their communities..

February 26, 2016

Marina Primorac of IMF has this nice piece on local currencies:

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If Trump is elected as President, what does it mean for the Fed?

February 25, 2016

It is one thing to reform the Fed, completely another to see Trump first getting elected as President and then reforming the Fed.

Things have become so negative for Federal Reserve (and ECB and BoE and BoJ and SNB and..??) that it has become a punching bag of sorts. Ryan McMaken of Mises has this bit on whether Trump will reform the Fed or not. Even more interesting is that all President candidates have spoken about reforming the Fed. From an institution which was beyond reproach some years ago, Fed has become such a reproachable organisation:

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Should ECB have twin goals as Fed?

February 22, 2016

Biagio Bossone and Stefano Sylos Labini look how ECB could have better managed the crisis.

They pick a note from Franco Modgiliani  and other scholars which argued for a broad based ECB:

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What is monetary policy anyway other than centralized economic planning?

February 9, 2016

Paul-Martin Foss of Mises Institute makes a point which is so difficult to fathom for even most economists – Central banks are nothing but central planners.

He says most economics teaching has poor things to say on planning but is in awe of central banking. Why should this be?

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How the use of floating-rate loans changes the impact of monetary policy

February 5, 2016

Filippo Ippolito, Ali K. Ozdagli and Ander Perez add another dimension to the monetary policy transmission channels. This one adds floating rates to the discussion.

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When Fed makes profits in a struggling business world..

February 4, 2016

One very wise (and largely forgotten) former central banker once remarked that when a central bank makes record profits when others are struggling, it is signs of serious concern. As most of this free income is passed onto the govt, it raises questions over independence and all that..

David Howden of Mises writes on similar thing happening with Federal Reserve:

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How Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz became monetarists?

February 4, 2016

A superb paper by George S. Tavlas of Bank of Greece. Far more useful than several of those macro/monetary policy papers.

He tracks what led the Friedman/Schwartz duo to become monetarists. Friedman actually favored use of fiscal policy for stabilisation till 1940s. Then in the 1950s role of monetary factors started to make sense. There was also a huge role played by a FDIC economist Clark Warburton who has of course been forgotten. In many ways, Friedman’s core ideas came from Warburton:

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Colombia’s discount currency exchanges are funneling drug money

February 1, 2016

I really like the way these illegal/informal exchanges work. This one is on currency exchange in Colombia:

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What happens in an economy when banks close down?

January 21, 2016

Ben Norman and Peter Zimmerman have this fascinating post on financial history.

Greece banks closed last year and the post draws parallel from Irish example in 1970s. Now unlike Greece banks Ireland banks closed due to strikes. What happened was interesting:

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Comparing the monetary policy responses to the crisis by the Fed and the ECB

January 19, 2016

Dae Woong Kang, Nick Ligthart and Ashoka Mody compare the responses.

In most such analyses, we find Fed did a better job than ECB. This one too says the same:

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