Reports of AI ending human labour may be greatly exaggerated

Stefania Albanesi, António Dias da Silva, Juan Francisco Jimeno, Ana Lamo and Alena Wabitsch in this ECB article:

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have revived the debate about the impact of new technologies on jobs (e.g. Frey and Osborne, 2017; Susskind, 2020; and Acemoglu, 2021). Waves of innovation have usually been accompanied by anxiety about the future of jobs. This apprehension persists, even though history suggests that previous fears about labour becoming redundant were exaggerated (e.g. Autor, 2015; Bessen, 2019).

In fact, in this article we show that during the deep learning boom of the 2010s, occupations potentially more exposed to AI-enabled technologies actually increased their employment share in Europe.

However, the jury is still out on whether the same can be expected from new developments in AI-enabled technologies. When the verdict comes in, it could be win or lose – not only for jobs, but also for equality and prosperity in Europe.